Quantitative Study on Business Cycles in a Model of Endogenous Investment Fluctuations

经济周期是指一个国家的经济在繁荣和衰退之间以不规则的周期发展，周期的频率为2。5-5年标准的经济理论可以解释广泛的商业周期现象，只要假设全要素生产率以这些频率波动。然而，经济学家对生产率波动的驱动机制尚未达成一致。在本研究计画中，我将一个企业层面的投资会导致另一个企业的投资的观点正式化，并利用企业层面的投资数据来实证检验理论假设。

It is known as business cycles that the national economies develop through booms and recessions in irregular cycles with frequencies of 2. 5-5 years. Standard economic theory can explain the wide range of business cycles phenomena, once it is assumed that the total factor productivity fluctuates in those frequencies. However, economists have not agreed on what mechanism drives the productivity fluctuation. In this research project, I formalize the idea that a firm-level investment induces another firm's investment, and test the theoretical hypotheses by firm-level investment data empirically.