Future estimate of the number of elderly people eligible for Long-termCare Insurance using the principle of multistate life tables and the effect of long-term care service use on progression of care need level.

本研究的目的是研究长期护理服务对护理需求水平增加的影响，并对未来需要长期护理的人数作出估计。使用Cox比例风险模型来确定长期护理保险服务的使用是否与护理需求水平的增加有关。我们使用多状态生命表的原则来估计需要长期护理的老年人的数量。在调整性别、年龄和护理需求水平后，服务使用者中护理需求水平增加概率的风险比计算为0.75。据估计，2012年需要长期护理的总人数是实际接受护理人数的101.2%。

The objective of this study was to examine the effects of long-term care services on an increase of care need levels and to make a future estimate of the number of people require long-term care. Cox proportionate hazard model was used to determine whether the use of long-term care insurance service is associated with increased care need level. We estimated the number of elderly people who would need long-term care using the principle of multistate life tables. After adjusting for sex, age, and care need level, the hazard ratio for probability of increased care need level among service users was calculated as 0.75. The estimated total number of people in 2012 who would need long-term care was estimated to101.2% to the actual number of people that received it.