Macro-, meso-, and micro-analyses on resigning and changing jobs in forestry

由于一些林业工作者在全国人口普查中没有被归类为“林业”，我们重新估计林业工作者的总数为71,906人。采用队列分析的方法，分析了年龄、时期、年龄对林业从业人员数量变化的影响。1946-1950出生年的工人即使在40多岁和50多岁时也会增加(队列效应)。从1960年到1965年，工人在所有出生年份队列中都减少了(期间效应)。60岁以上人群中劳动者数量的差异逐渐缩小，到70岁时几乎耗尽(年龄效应)。案例研究是在静冈县的天龙地区和兵库县的田岛地区，而不是在林区进行的。收集了这些地区林业合作社工作人员的数据。田岛地区的试工工资函数表明，只有人力资本变量中的林业经验对工资增长有影响，尽管其估计值也不是很高。并对所有合作社进行了问卷调查。分析目前正在进行中。

Because some forestry workers are not classified as "Forestry" in the National Population Census, we newly estimate the aggregate number of forestry workers as 71, 906. The cohort analysis is carried out into the effects of age, period, and cohort on the change of the number of the forestry workers. The workers in the 1946-1950 birth year cohort increase even in their 40s and 50s(the cohort effect). From 1960 to 1965, workers decrease in all birth year cohorts(the period effect). The differences of numbers of workers among the cohorts over 60s progressively shrink, and almost run out in 70s(the age effect). The case study is done in Tenryu Area, Shizuoka Pref., the forestry area, and the Tajima Area, Hyogo Pref., not the forestry area. The data of the workers in the forest cooperatives in those areas were collected. The trial wage function in Tajima area indicates only the forestry experience in the human capital variables works on the wage increase, although even its estimate is not so high. The questionnaire to all the cooperatives was also done. The analysis is now in progress.