Regional economic models for depopulating rural areas with integration of spatial data, satellite information and small output area statistics

通过整合地理信息系统和卫星图像识别出每一块田地上的种植情况。每年都有杂乱无章的弃耕地出现。大约一半的梯田是由面积不到1公顷的小农户耕种的。我们利用农业普查的小面积面积统计数据进行的估计表明，小农和老年农民在水稻生产上投入了大量劳动力，如果扩大农场规模，至少70%的田地可以被生产年龄农场取代。对不同农场规模的耕地地块的多项Logit模型估计结果表明，在相对平坦的地区进行大规模农场经营，如果农田靠近农场，就可以很容易地租用土地。另一方面，在陡峭的地区，即使是2到3公顷的中等规模的作业，在租用田地时也可能比大型农场更有可能，这取决于到田地的距离。

Planting on each field plot was recognized with an integration of GIS and satellite images. Abandoned farmland plots were observed disorderly in each year. Approximately half of the terrace plots were farmed by small farm household with less than 1 ha. Our estimation with small output area statistics of the Agricultural Census clarified that small and elderly farmers input a great deal of labor on rice production and at least 70% of the field can be substituted by productive age farms if they enlarge farm size. The result of multinomial logit model estimation of cultivated field plots by different farm size suggests that large scale farm operation in relatively flat areas can readily rent field if the field is close to the farm. In steep areas, on the other side, even the middle size operation with 2 to 3 ha can be more probable in renting field than large farms depends on the distance to the field.