Stochastic Assessment of Terrorist Blast and Fragmentation Casualty Risks

该项目将开发概率模型，以预测恐怖分子汽车爆炸威胁造成人员伤亡和其他损失的可能性和程度。汽车炸弹由大量炸药组成，并产生车轮、发动机缸体、门板零件和其他弹片等主要碎片，对暴露在街道或其他群众集会中的人构成严重安全威胁。对安全风险的更好理解将有助于设定安全疏散距离。对恐怖主义风险的量化评估还将使人们能够评估安全措施的效力，以提供社会可接受的具有成本效益的保护水平。

The project will develop probabilistic models to predict the likelihood and extent of casualties and other losses from terrorist car bombing threats. Car bombs comprise a large quantity of explosives, and produce primary fragments such as wheels, engine block, parts of door panels and other shrapnel that pose a serious safety hazard to people exposed in a street or other mass gatherings. An improved understanding of safety risks will assist in setting safe evacuation distances. A quantitative assessment of terrorism risks will also allow the effectiveness of security measures to be assessed to provide cost-effective levels of protection that are acceptable to society.