Improving Sub-national Population Forecasts

这个项目的目的是在区域、议会区域和当地人口预测这两个相关领域取得重大进展，即提高预测的准确性，并提供预测不确定性的指标。人口预测往往比用户意识到的要不准确得多，而且无法提供任何关于可靠性的信息。每年，预测都会为各种规划和政策制定活动提供信息，并影响价值数十亿美元的投资决策。为了增加预测对用户的价值，该项目旨在结合一系列学科的方法，设计出更准确的人口预测方法，并提供有关其可能误差的附带信息。

The aim of this project is to make significant advances in two related areas of regional, council area and local population forecasting, namely improving accuracy, and providing an indication of forecast uncertainty. Population forecasts often turn out to be far more inaccurate than users realise and fail to come with any information about reliability. Every year forecasts inform a wide variety of planning and policy development activities and influence investment decisions worth billions of dollars. In order to increase the value of forecasts to users, this project aims to combine methods from a range of disciplines to devise more accurate ways of forecasting populations, and provide accompanying information on their likely error.