Developing a decision support system to improve crop management, yield forecasting and resource use efficiency in UK soft fruit production

英国软果产业是英国农村经济的重要组成部分，草莓和覆盆子的年销售额为111千吨，零售额为4.52亿英镑。在过去的15年里，软果部门在新技术和高产品种的开发上投入了大量资金，草莓1级产量已从每公顷8吨上升到21吨（Defra）。然而，如果优化作物农艺，38吨/公顷的商业产量是可能的。产量差距的部分原因是由于多通道内多变的环境因素，以及种植者根据这些变量做出的经营决策。在多变的天气期间，过度灌溉和高肥料投入会增加病害易感性，降低市场产量，降低感官品质。因此，由于腐烂、擦伤和质地差等疾病，每年有33%的软果被浪费掉。减少30%的软果浪费将阻止英国的进口，并为BGG种植者带来每年500万英镑的额外收入。此外，BGG种植者对1类产量的预测不准确，导致2013年仅两周的时间就损失了100万英镑的收入，而提高产量预测的准确性有望每年增加300万英镑的收入。该联盟将开发一个决策支持系统（DSS），使种植者能够改进操作决策，减少天气变化对作物产量、质量和浪费的影响。种植者、零售商和消费者将受益于更准确的产量预测，从而更好地定价；更高的资源利用效率，从而节省成本和改善环境绩效；生产过程中更少的浪费，从而增加销售吨数；提高高质量新鲜水果供应的一致性，保证保质期，从而减少储存中的浪费。该联盟在软果农艺学和畜牧业、作物生理和营养、基质科学、食品质量科学、工程、建模、IT和气象学方面拥有专业知识，并在提供和利用公共资助的研发方面有着良好的记录。该联盟将：1)开发、测试和部署创新的技术、科学和气象解决方案，以减少天气变化对产量和质量的影响；2)提高高品质、植物营养丰富、保证保质期水果供应的一致性；3)减少收获前和收获后的浪费，提高盈利能力和资源利用效率；4)提高作物产量和时间预测的准确性，以确保更高的产品定价和提高种植者的利润；5)开发和部署决策支持系统，帮助种植者提高其业务的经济和环境可持续性；6)提高英国软果生产对天气和气候变化影响的适应能力。这些新技术的概念验证将在East Malling Research （EMR）使用专有的草莓和覆盆子品种进行科学实验。然后，将在BGG种植地进一步部署和开发DSS，以量化提高资源利用效率的潜力，通过减少浪费提高生产力，并通过更准确的产量预测提高种植者利润。我们预计，通过采用这些产出，每年可获得1500万至1700万英镑的收入。首先，BGG将向其60家英国软果种植者和海外合作伙伴进行商业推广。DSS将被转移到BGG的核果种植者，其他英国果树部门，以及英国和海外其他受保护和不受保护的高价值园艺生产系统，这些系统需要提高农业精度，以推进可持续集约化并产生经济影响。

The UK soft fruit industry is a vital part of the UK's rural economy with annual sales of strawberries and raspberries of 111 Kt, worth c. £452M at retail sales value. The soft fruit sector has invested heavily in the development of new technology and higher-yielding varieties over the last 15 years and strawberry Class 1 yield/ha has risen from 8 t to 21 t (Defra). However, commercial yields of 38 t/ha are possible if crop agronomy is optimised. The yield gap is due in part to changeable environmental factors within the polytunnels, and the operational decisions made by growers in response to these variables. Over-irrigation and high fertiliser inputs during changeable weather can increase disease susceptibility, lower marketable yields and reduce organoleptic quality. Consequently, 33% of all harvested soft fruit is wasted each year, due to disorders such as rots, bruising and poor textural quality. A 30% reduction in soft fruit waste would stem UK imports and generate extra income for BGG growers of c. £5M p.a. Furthermore, inaccurate predictions of Class 1 yields by BGG growers resulted in lost revenue of £1M in just one two-week period in 2013 and improving the accuracy of yield forecasts could be expected to increase revenue by £3-4M p.a.To achieve this, the consortium will develop a Decision Support System (DSS) that will enable growers to improve operational decision making and reduce the impact of changeable weather on crop yield, quality and wastage. Growers, retailers and consumers will benefit from more accurate yield forecasts leading to better pricing, greater resource use efficiency leading to cost savings and improved environmental performance, lower waste during production leading to increased tonnage to sell, improved consistency of supply of high quality fresh fruit with an assured shelf-life leading to reduced wastage in store.The consortium has expertise in soft fruit agronomy and husbandry, crop physiology and nutrition, substrate science, food quality science, engineering, modelling, IT and meteorology, and has a strong track record of delivering and exploiting publicly-funded R&D. The consortium will: 1) develop, test and deploy innovative technological, scientific, and meteorological solutions to reduce the impact of changeable weather on yield and quality; 2) improve consistency of the supply of high quality, phytonutritious fruit with an assured shelf-life; 3) reduce pre- and post-harvest waste leading to greater profitability and resource use efficiency; 4) improve accuracy of crop yield and timing forecasts to assure higher product pricing and improved grower margins; 5) develop and deploy a DSS to help growers improve the economic and environmental sustainability of their businesses; 6) increase resilience of UK soft fruit production to the impacts of weather and climate variability.Proof-of-concept of these novel technologies will be tested in scientific experiments using proprietary varieties of strawberry and raspberry at East Malling Research (EMR). The DSS will then be deployed and developed further on BGG grower sites to quantify the potential to deliver a greater efficiency in the use of resources, improved productivity from waste reduction, and improved grower margins from more accurate yield forecasts. We anticipate revenue gains of £15-17M p. a. arising from the adoption of the outputs. The route to market will be via commercial roll-out to BGG's 60 UK soft fruit growers and overseas partners in the first instance. The DSS will be transferable to BGG's stone fruit growers, to other UK tree fruit sectors and to other protected and unprotected high-value horticultural production systems in the UK and overseas where improved farming precision is needed to advance sustainable intensification and deliver economic impact.