TEMPERATURE AND AIR POLLUTION EFFECTS ON HUMAN MORTALITY

本研究将定量评估日常生活中， 1980-1989年美国的死亡率、温度和空气污染。 第一阶段将致力于收购，访问，聚合， 质量保证和大量死亡率的描述性分析， 天气和污染数据将在这项工作中进行评估。 城市特定 探索性、频域和时间序列回归分析将 然后在美国城市的一个选定子集上进行， 重点分析了美国40个最大的大都市区。 最后 这些多个城市分析的结果将被整合使用Meta， 分析方法，以便对各自的 温度和空气污染对美国人死亡率的影响。 研究解决了流行病学中的几个关键研究需求， 评估这些环境因素对人类健康的影响： 高质量和全面性的数据将在这方面采用 研究将大大提高结果的普遍性， 过去的研究;这一分析将采用先进的时间序列 统计程序，以适当解决 自相关和互相关存在于这样的串行数据;更多 温度效应的生物学合理规范将是 这项分析涵盖了近一半的美国人口， 10年来，将提供第一个大规模的时间序列评估 环境空气污染和温度对美国死亡率的影响。 作为 因此，这项研究提案代表了一项重要的努力， 流行病学方法和科学知识， 评估这些环境污染对人类健康的影响 压力 这些进步至关重要，因为我们的社会 对当今污染和未来健康的担忧 全球变暖的影响。

This research will quantitatively evaluate the relationships among daily mortality, temperature, and air pollution in the U.S. during 1980-1989. The first phase will be devoted to the acquisition, access, aggregation, quality assurance, and descriptive analyses of the voluminous mortality, weather, and pollution data to be evaluated in this work. City-specific exploratory, frequency domain, and time series regression analyses will then be performed on a select subset of U.S. cities, followed by a more focused analysis of the 40 largest U.S. metropolitan areas. Finally, the results of these multiple city analyses will be integrated using meta- analysis methods in order to derive robust assessments of the respective influences of temperature and air pollution on U.S. mortality.This proposed research addresses several key research needs in the epidemiologic assessment of the human health consequences of these environmental factors: the high quality and comprehensiveness of the data to be employed in this research will greatly improve the generalizability of the results versus those of past studies; this analysis will apply advanced time series statistical procedures in order to appropriately address the autocorrelations and crosscorrelations present in such serial data; more biologically plausible specifications of temperature effects will be employed, and; this analysis, encompassing nearly half the U.S. population over 10 years, will provide the first large-scale time series assessment of the effects of ambient air pollution and temperature on U.S. mortality. As such, this research proposal represents an important effort to advance both the epidemiologic methods and scientific knowledge available for the assessment of the human health consequences of these environmental stresses. These advances are of critical importance, given our society's concerns about present-day pollution and about possible future health impacts of global warming.