A Risk-Based Fire and Rescue Management System

在英国，每年约有800人死于火灾，15，000人受到非致命伤害。在过去的60年里，英国的紧急消防响应（即火灾覆盖）是基于建筑环境的密度。这些安排有效地减少了公共场所的火灾事故，结果是，目前的系统在市中心有过度提供防火保护的趋势，而在住宅郊区有证据表明提供不足，因为目前75%的火灾死亡发生在家庭住宅中。在此背景下，有必要建立一个基于风险的资产管理系统，以合理分配消防和救援资源，并根据生命、财产和环境的风险改进业务。以往的研究表明，一些不确定性推理/处理理论已被用来促进火灾风险评估和管理（基于风险的决策）。详细的文献审查表明，目前缺乏一个全面的风险为基础的资产管理框架和适当的支持工具，用于消防和救援服务。考虑到火灾和救援行动的独特性质，其他领域的可用方法可能无法直接用于本研究中调查的火灾和救援活动的基于风险的资产管理。为了满足这些研究需求，本项目将提出一个基于风险的资产管理框架，并开发一套支持工具，以便有效地部署可用资源，并改善/优化检查，消防和救援策略。本研究将首先与工业合作伙伴密切合作，进行数据收集和建模。消防及救援行动程序将连同消防及救援服务的特点、所使用的设备类型及现时所采用的策略一并研究。成本效益也将在消防和救援业务战略方面进行调查。将提出一个通用的基于风险的框架，该框架能够适应多种标准的建模，并有一个包含通用系统/操作模型的实时数据库。将制定以风险为基础的框架，为消防和救援行业采取有效的行动策略制定指导方针。该框架将能够处理与每项业务战略有关的风险，涉及各种标准，如反应时间、业务费用和风险程度。将采用危险识别、风险估计、风险控制备选方案确定、成本效益分析和决策的正式评估程序来制定这一基于风险的框架。为推行以风险为本的资产管理架构而发展的支援模型包括主观风险评估工具、多属性决策工具、以风险为本的消防安全系统检查/维修规划工具、以风险为本的多目标优化工具，以及海上救援模拟器模型。案例研究将用于展示拟议的框架和相关的支持工具，并评估其适用性和有效性。详细的案例研究将包括工业合作者中消防车和其他资源的部署模型、默西河的海上救援行动以及消防安全系统的检查/维护计划。将开发一个原型软件包，目的是将建模和调查工作转变为一个互动式风险建模和决策平台。在整个项目期间，将提高公众对火灾风险的认识。

Fires in the UK kill about 800 people and cause non-fatal injures to 15,000 every year. For the past 60 years provision for emergency fire-fighting response (i.e. fire cover) in the UK has been based on the density of the built environment. These arrangements have been effective in reducing the incidents of fire in public places, with the result that there is now a tendency for the present system to over-provide fire cover in city centres, whilst there is evidence of under-provision in residential suburban areas, given that 75% of fire deaths currently occur in domestic dwellings. Against this background, it is necessary to develop a risk-based asset management system to reallocate rationally fire and rescue resources and to improve the operations based on risks to life, property and the environment. Previous studies indicate that some uncertainty inference/treatment theories have been used to facilitate fire risk assessment and management (risk-based decision-making). The detailed literature review indicates that there is a lack of a holistic risk-based asset management framework and appropriate supporting tools for use in the fire and rescue services. The available methods in other domains may not be directly tailored for use in risk-based asset management of fire and rescue activities investigated in this research, taking into account the unique nature of fire and rescue operations. To address such identified research needs, in this project, a risk-based asset management framework will be proposed and a set of supporting tools developed in order to deploy effectively available resources, and to improve/optimise inspection, fire-fighting and rescue strategies.This research will first conduct data collection and modelling in close collaboration with the industrial collaborator. Fire and rescue operational processes will be studied together with the characteristics of the fire and rescue services, the type of equipment used and the current strategies adopted. The cost benefit will also be investigated in terms of fire and rescue operational strategies. A generic risk-based framework will be proposed capable of accommodating the modelling of multiple criteria and also have a live database containing models of generic systems/operations. The risk-based framework will be developed to establish guidelines for adopting effective operational strategies in the fire and rescue industry. The framework will be capable of dealing with the risk associated with each operational strategy in terms of various criteria such as response time, operational cost and the level of risk. A formal assessment process of hazard identification, risk estimation, identification of risk control options, cost benefit analysis and decision-making will be used to develop this risk-based framework. The supporting models to be developed for the implementation of the risk-based asset management framework include a subjective risk estimation tool, a multiple attribute decision-making tool, a planning tool for risk-based inspection/maintenance of fire safety systems, a risk-based multi-objective optimisation tool and a marine rescue simulator model. Case studies will be used to demonstrate the proposed framework and the associated supporting tools, and to assess their applicability and effectiveness. The detailed case studies will include the modelling of the deployment of fire engines and the other resources in the industrial collaborator, marine rescue operations in River Mersey and inspection/maintenance scheme of fire safety systems. A prototype software package will be developed, which aims to transform the modelling and investigation work into a platform for interactive risk modelling and decision-making. The awareness of fire risks to the public will be promoted throughout the project.