Centre for Energy Systems Integration

能源系统对英国工业和社会的未来至关重要。然而，能源三难困境带来了许多相互关联的复杂挑战。目前的综合能源系统建模和仿真技术存在一系列缺陷，这些缺陷削弱了它们制定和告知改进政策和规划决策的能力，因此阻碍了英国实现巨大的潜在利益。当前方法的特点是高层次的静态模型，这些模型产生的答案或预测高度依赖于一组关键的简化假设，因此不能以高度的信心依赖。它们无法提供足够准确或详细的、真实能源系统的物理、工程、社会、时空或随机方面的综合表征。面对商业和技术发展的不确定性以及气候变化、行为动态和技术相互依赖的影响，它们也难以制定强有力的长期计划。能源系统集成中心（CESI）的目标是解决这一弱点，并降低与保障和交付英国完全集成的未来能源系统相关的风险。这将通过开发一种完全不同的整体建模、仿真和优化方法来实现，该方法利用来自学术、工业和政府网络的现有高级工具，并将它们与使用全尺寸多矢量演示系统验证的详细模型相结合。CESI将进行不确定性量化，以确定模型提供的关于现实世界的稳健信息，并确定改进模型的努力应该集中在哪里，以便最大限度地了解现实世界。这种方法以及有关的模型和数据将提供给能源界，并将为目前的综合能源系统研究提供严格的基础，以便能够以比目前更大的信心进行未来的能源系统规划和政策拟订。CESI是五所研究型大学的独特合作伙伴关系，并支持战略合作伙伴西门子（为中心贡献价值710万英镑）。纽卡斯尔大学、达勒姆大学、爱丁堡大学、赫瑞瓦特大学和苏塞克斯大学的RCUK能源组合价值超过1亿英镑。该中心将有一个纽卡斯尔大学的物理基地，这将为新的6000万英镑的城市科学大楼释放中心的空间。该建筑将包含世界一流的设施，用于引领数字化城市可持续发展的国际研究，并将物理连接到全尺寸仪器化多矢量能源系统。该建筑将以城市天文台为特色，它将收集来自整个城市的各种数据，以及一个3D决策剧院，它将使实时数据能够被分析，探索和验证假设。CESI工作的主要目的是开发一个模块化的“即插即用”环境，在这个环境中，能源系统的组件可以共同模拟和详细优化。由于没有孤立地考虑任何技术，而是将各部门作为一个相互联系的整体来考虑，因此可以审查技术和用户之间的相互作用和反弹效应。所提出的方法是一个系统架构师概念，以详细的多向量双轨方法为基础，综合模拟和优化各种规模的不确定性，再加上大规模的演示和实验设施，以测试、验证和评估解决方案和场景。系统架构师采用完全集成、平衡、长期、透明的方法进行能源系统规划，不受筒仓和短期思维的束缚。

Energy systems are vitally important to the future of UK industry and society. However, the energy trilemma presents many complex interconnected challenges. Current integrated energy systems modelling and simulation techniques suffer from a series of shortcomings that undermine their ability to develop and inform improved policy and planning decisions, therefore preventing the UK realising huge potential benefits. The current approach is characterised by high level static models which produce answers or predictions that are highly subject to a set of critical simplifying assumptions and therefore cannot be relied upon with a high degree of confidence. They are unable to provide sufficiently accurate or detailed, integrated representations of the physics, engineering, social, spatial temporal or stochastic aspects of real energy systems. They also struggle to generate robust long term plans in the face of uncertainties in commercial and technological developments and the effects of climate change, behavioural dynamics and technological interdependencies.The aim of the Centre for Energy Systems Integration (CESI) is to address this weakness and reduce the risks associated with securing and delivering a fully integrated future energy system for the UK. This will be achieved through the development of a radically different, holistic modelling, simulation and optimisation methodology which makes use of existing high level tools from academic, industry and government networks and couples them with detailed models validated using full scale multi vector demonstration systems. CESI will carry out uncertainty quantification to identify the robust messages which the models are providing about the real world, and to identify where effort on improving models should be focused in order to maximise learning about the real world. This approach, and the associated models and data, will be made available to the energy community and will provide a rigorous underpinning for current integrated energy systems research, so that future energy system planning and policy formulation can be carried out with a greater degree of confidence than is currently possible.CESI is a unique partnership of five research intensive universities and underpinning strategic partner Siemens (contribution value of £7.1m to the centre) The Universities of Newcastle, Durham, Edinburgh, Heriot-Watt and Sussex have a combined RCUK energy portfolio worth over £100m. The centre will have a physical base as Newcastle University which will release space for the centre in the new £60m Urban Sciences Building. This building will contain world-class facilities from which to lead international research into digitally enabled urban sustainability and will also be physically connected to a full scale instrumented multi vector energy system. The building will feature an Urban Observatory, which will collect a diverse set of data from across the city, and a 3D Decision Theatre which will enable real-time data to be analysed, explored and the enable the testing of hypotheses.The main aim of CESI's work is to develop a modular 'plug-n-play' environment in which components of the energy system can be co-simulated and optimised in detail. With no technology considered in isolation, considering sectors as an interlinked whole, the interactions and rebound effects across technologies and users can be examined. The methodology proposed is a system architect concept underpinned by a twin track approach of detailed multi-vector, integrated simulation and optimisation at various scales incorporating uncertainty, coupled with large scale demonstration and experimental facilities in order to test, validate and evaluate solutions and scenarios. A System Architect takes a fully integrated, balanced, long term, transparent approach to energy system planning unfettered by silos and short term thinking.