Multilevel Modelling of the Government's New School Performance Measures, 'Floor Standards' Target and 'Narrowing the Gap' Priority

政府每年都会公布学校表现表，报告英国中学学生的成绩和进步。这些表格随后被媒体、网站和国家报纸作为副刊重新公布。政府的目标是追究学校的责任，并使家长能够就送孩子去哪里上学做出有意义的选择。政府2010年的《学校白皮书》概述了对这些表格的重大修改，这些修改现已在2011年学校成绩表中实施。首先，他们改变了衡量学生进步的方式。其次，他们引入了一个新的政府目标，要求所有学校在这些措施中都要通过“最低标准”。第三，他们把所有学校缩小最弱势学生与同龄人之间的成绩差距作为政府的一项新优先事项。这些变化具有重要的影响：未能达到政府新目标的“表现不佳”学校将面临被置于“特殊措施”、接管甚至关闭的风险。这些变化的高风险性质决定了必须对其进行严格审查，并开发和应用创新技术，以探索政府衡量学校表现的潜在改进方法。这项建议将通过执行一项方法和实质性研究方案来做到这一点，该方案基于对政府掌握的高度详细的学生和学校一级表现数据的分析。这项建议的主要目的是：1.严格检讨英国的学校表现衡量标准虽然新的学校表现衡量标准关系重大，但目标和优先次序并不存在。因此，我会仔细解释每项措施背后的方法，探讨每项措施可让使用者得出的结论，并解释不同的措施如何与不同的使用者(例如家长和政府)和不同的目的(例如学校选择和学校问责)有关。研究学校表现评估的潜在改进将使用统计模型来探索新的学校表现衡量标准和政府目标，以及它们可能受到潜在统计限制的程度。例如，众所周知，小型学校的衡量成绩每年都会有很大的波动，这仅仅是因为它们所依据的学生人数很少。然而，政府的目标似乎没有认识到这个问题，也没有意识到它对学校以及最终学生未来的重要影响。然后，我将扩展拟议的模型，以探索政府新的优先事项，并从统计数据上确定学校是否正在缩小最弱势学生与同龄人之间的表现差距。这种分析是尝试确定那些可能带来这种变化的学校政策和做法的必要的第一步。Skills DeVELOPEMENTI将通过我的导师指导的阅读方案发展我的统计建模和软件技能，并将通过参加外部培训讲习班和对这一领域的专家进行为期一周的学术访问来补充这一技能。我将通过我的大学提供的培训课程来发展我的知识交流、媒体和公共参与技能。4.向学术界传播这项研究，非ACADEMICSI将在学术期刊上发表这项研究，并在国内和国际会议上发表。我将通过为期一周的安置与第三部门的慈善机构合作。我会透过简短的研究简报会和新闻稿，向教育署和非学术界人士宣传这项研究。最后，我将通过举办研讨会和提供在线培训材料，培训学术和其他研究人员在研究中使用的方法。

Each year, the Government publishes school performance tables that report the achievement and progress of pupils in English secondary schools. These tables are subsequently republished by the media, on websites and as supplements in national newspapers. The Government's aim is to hold schools accountable and to enable parents to make meaningful choices about where to send their children to school. The Government's 2010 Schools White Paper outlined major changes to these tables which have now been implemented in the 2011 school performance tables. First, they have changed the way they measure pupil progress. Second, they have introduced a new government target which requires all schools to pass 'floor standards' in these measures. Third, they have made it a new government priority that all schools narrow the performance gaps between their most disadvantaged pupils and their peers. These changes have important implications: 'underperforming' schools which fail the new government target will risk being placed in 'special measures', take-over, or even closure.The high-stakes nature of these changes make it imperative that they are critically reviewed and that innovative techniques are developed and applied to explore potential improvements to the way the Government measure school performances. This proposal will do this by pursuing a programme of methodological and substantive research based on analyses of the highly detailed pupil and school level performance data held by the Government. The main objectives of this proposal are to:1. CRITICALLY REVIEW SCHOOL PERFORMANCE MEASURES IN ENGLANDDespite the high-stakes nature of the new school performance measures, target and priority no such review exists. I will therefore carefully explain the methodology behind each measure, explore the conclusions that each measure allows users to draw, and explain how different measures are relevant to different users (e.g. parents and government) and for different purposes (e.g. school choice and school accountability).2. RESEARCH POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENTS TO SCHOOL PERFORMANCE MEASURESI will use statistical models to explore the new school performance measures and government target and the extent to which they might suffer from potential statistical limitations. For example, the measured performances of small schools are known to fluctuate greatly from year to year simply due to the small number of students upon which they are based. However, the government target appears not to recognise this issue or the important implications it has for schools' and ultimately pupils' futures.I will then extend the proposed models to explore the new government priority and to statistically identify whether schools are narrowing the performance gaps between their most disadvantaged pupils and their peers. Such analyses are a necessary first step in attempts to identify those school policies and practices that can bring about such changes.3. SKILLS DEVELOPEMENTI will develop my statistical modelling and software skills through a programme of reading guided by my mentor and will complement this by attending external training workshops and a one-week academic visit to an expert in this area. I will develop my knowledge exchange, media and public engagement skills through training courses provided by my university. 4. DISSEMINATE THE RESEARCH TO ACADEMICS AND NON-ACADEMICSI will publish the research in academic journals and present it at national and international conferences. I will collaborate with a third sector charity through a one-week placement. I will publicise the research to the Department for Education and non-academics through short research briefings and press releases. Finally, I will train academic and other researchers in the methods used in the research through running a workshop and by providing online training materials.