Is the rate of domestic violence decreasing or increasing? A re-analysis of the British Crime Survey

家庭暴力的发生率是上升还是下降？英国犯罪调查报告显示，在经历了十多年的下降（1995-2009）之后，家庭暴力的发生率似乎已经稳定下来，或者开始上升。英国犯罪调查是世界上衡量家庭暴力的最好的调查之一，如果不是最好的话。在过去的20年里，除了单一的衡量标准外，人们还在改进提问的措辞和方法方面进行了实验。然而，收集数据的不同方式显示出不同的结果：一项基于面对面提问的主要调查的发现显示出家庭暴力率的上升，另一项基于自我完成模块的发现也显示出上升，但在统计上并不显著，可能表明稳定。解决家庭暴力变化率的这种模糊性对政策制定者具有重要意义。在改善政策环境以减少针对妇女和女孩的基于性别的暴力方面，已经花费了大量的创造性精力和资源。这一政策目标在历届政府更迭中始终如一。在降低家庭暴力发生率方面取得了非凡的成功。因此，数据表明，家庭暴力的发生率要么在增加，要么在稳定，而不是继续下降，这对政府决策者和非政府组织来说是一个严峻的挑战，对政策和实践都有影响。某些子群体的比率变化是否比其他子群体更大？如果能够确定变化速度较大或方向不同的次级群体，则政策反应将有所不同。确定更脆弱的次群体可能使稀缺资源成为目标。这也将有助于更深入地了解暴力的起因，以及寻找更多关键干预地点的可能性。该项目将通过检查英国犯罪调查的原始数据来调查家庭暴力发生率变化的证据。它将考虑方法上的差异和变化是否构成报告的家庭暴力率差异的基础。它将讨论定义问题：计算暴力的不同单位、事件发生率、受害者和流行率是否会产生影响。委员会将审议报告的暴力类型是否有变化：是更严重还是更不严重或更频繁；包括或排除性侵犯和伴侣跟踪是否会对总结趋势产生影响？它将调查是否在某些群体而不是其他群体中发生了变化。性别状况正在改变吗？家庭结构是否存在差异？幸存者是继续与伴侣住在一起，还是离开？经济状况、就业和失业情况有变化吗？是否有证据表明，更广泛的经济和社会环境的变化，如经济衰退，产生了影响？该项目将调查家庭暴力率下降的明显停止是否有力；比率正在上升的发现是否比比率正在稳定的发现更有力；以及是否某些亚群体比其他群体更容易受到影响。它将与决策者接触，回应他们的具体关切，并通过我们所参与的已经建立的网络迅速传播调查结果。

Is the rate of domestic violence going up or down? After over a decade of decline (1995-2009) the rate of domestic violence as reported by the British Crime Survey appears to have stabilised or started to increase. The British Crime Survey is one of the best if not the best surveys in the world in its measurement of domestic violence over time. In addition to a single measure over two decades, there has been experimentation with improved wording and methods of asking questions. However, different ways of collecting the data are showing different results: one finding, based on the main survey, which asks questions face-to-face, is showing an upturn in the rate of domestic violence, the other, based on the self-completion module also shows an upturn but not at a statistically significant level perhaps indicating stabilisation. Resolving this ambiguity in the rate of change in domestic violence has important implications for policy makers. Enormous creative energy and resource has been expended in improving the policy environment so as to reduce gender-based violence against women and girls. This policy goal has been consistent across the change of government. There has been extraordinary success in driving down the rate of domestic violence. So the data suggesting that the rate of domestic violence is either increasing or stabilising rather than continuing to decline is acutely challenging to governmental policy makers and NGOs, with implications for policy and practice. Is the rate for some sub-groups changing more than that for others? Policy responses would be different if sub-groups could be identified where the rate of change was greater or in a different direction to others. Identifying more vulnerable sub-groups might enable the targeting of scarce resources. It would also help the development of a deeper understanding of the causes of the violence, and the potential for further key sites of intervention.The project will investigate the evidence of changes in the rate of domestic violence through an examination of the raw data of the British Crime Survey. It will consider whether methodological differences and changes underlie differences in reported rates of domestic violence. It will address definitional issues: whether the different units in which the violence is counted, producing rates of incidents, victims and prevalance make a difference. It will consider whether there are changes in the types of violence reported: is it more or less severe or frequent; does the inclusion or exclusion of sexual assault and stalking by partners make a difference to the summary trends? It will investigate whether there are changes in some groups rather than others. Is the gender profile changing? Are there differences in household structure and whether survivors stay living with partners or move on? Are there changes in economic position, in employment and unemployment? Is there any evidence that changes in the wider economic and social environment, such as the recession, has made a difference?The project would investigate whether the apparent cessation in the decline in the rate of domestic violence is robust; whether the finding that the rate is increasing is more or less robust than the finding that it is stabilising; and whether some sub-groups are more affected than others. It would engage with policy makers, responding to their specific concerns, and offer rapid dissemination of findings through already established networks of which we are part.