The Impact of the Financial Crisis on UK Company Performance

在2008- 2009年的经济衰退期间，英国的生产率急剧下降，此后复苏缓慢。目前仍远低于危机前趋势的延续水平。这与英国战后其他几次衰退的经历形成了鲜明对比，当时英国经济下滑幅度较小，复苏速度更快；这也与美国的情况大不相同。美国的生产率保持得相当不错，但总体失业情况比英国更为严重。正如货币政策委员会（Monetary policy Committee）和预算责任办公室（Office for Budget Responsibility）所强调的那样，理解近期生产率疲软的原因对宏观经济政策至关重要。这项研究的主要目的是调查英国最近生产力疲软的根本原因，特别是检查银行业危机可能影响英国经济供给侧的机制，并关注它如何影响公司业绩。这些机制是通过检查个别公司或部门的业绩差异来确定的，根据它们对银行融资的依赖来实现增长。该研究分析了来自一系列二手数据源的公司和行业层面的数据，强调了数据中与生产率放缓的不同解释相一致的模式。本研究解决了以下问题：1。自金融危机以来，各个行业和英国企业的生产率放缓有多普遍？这与20世纪90年代初的经济衰退有何不同？银行业危机对英国企业所经历的银行信贷状况有何影响？银行信贷条件可能影响英国公司业绩的机制是什么？这些影响的程度有多大？有什么证据表明，英国生产率疲软与信贷紧缩无关？尤其是劳动力囤积？研究的主要重点是分析与银行业危机直接相关的生产率疲软的原因。一种可能的机制是，信贷供应的缺乏阻碍了高生产率（主要是依赖银行的年轻小型企业）的发展，并为老牌企业提供了一些保护。换句话说，银行业危机可能降低了企业间投入和产出分配的效率。为了研究这一点，生产率增长被分解为由于单个企业内部发展而发生的生产率变化和由于资源在企业间分配效率的变化而发生的生产率变化。如果银行业危机是导致英国生产率疲软的一个重要因素（与经济衰退不同），那么预期生产率下降应该在很大程度上是由于企业间资源配置效率的下降。这项研究是根据现有的数据来源，衡量银行业危机对不同类型的英国公司所经历的银行信贷状况的影响。接下来，它采用一种准实验方法来衡量紧缩信贷条件对公司业绩的重要性，比较金融危机前后可能容易受到紧缩信贷条件影响的公司和不太容易受到紧缩信贷条件影响的公司的结果。从本质上讲，银行业危机为研究信贷紧缩对实际经济结果的影响提供了一个自然实验。该研究研究了金融危机对许多公司绩效指标的影响，包括生产率、投资、公司存活率和创造就业机会。虽然不是主要焦点，但也分析了企业层面劳动力囤积的程度，以及这可能如何导致最近的生产率疲软。

UK productivity fell sharply during the recession of 2008-9, and recovered only sluggishly after that. It currently remains substantially below a continuation of its pre-crisis trend. This contrasts very sharply with the experience of other post-war recessions in the UK when the fall was less sharp and the recovery quicker; it is also very different from experience in the US, where productivity has held up quite well, but where aggregate job loss has been more severe than in the UK. Understanding the reasons for recent productivity weakness is of first order importance to macroeconomic policy, as stressed by both the Monetary Policy Committee and the Office for Budget Responsibility. The main aim of the research is to investigate the underlying causes for recent productivity weakness in the UK, examining in particular the mechanisms by which the banking sector crisis might have affected the supply side of the UK economy, and focusing on how it has affected company performance. These mechanisms are identified by examining differences in the performance of individual firms or sectors according to their reliance on bank finance in order to grow. The research analyses company- and sector-level data from a range of secondary data sources, highlighting patterns in the data consistent with different explanations for the productivity slowdown. The research addresses the following questions:1. How widespread across sectors and UK companies is the productivity slowdown since the financial crisis? How does this differ to the recession of the early 1990s?2. What has been the impact of the banking sector crisis on bank credit conditions experienced by UK companies?3. What are the mechanisms through which bank credit conditions might have affected the performance of UK companies and what are the magnitudes of these effects?4. What is the evidence that UK productivity weakness has been associated with factors unrelated to tight credit conditions; labour hoarding in particular?The main focus of the research is on analysing reasons for productivity weakness directly related to the banking crisis. One possible mechanism is that lack of credit availability has stunted the development of high-productivity, mainly young and small bank dependent firms and provided some protection for older established companies. In other words, the banking crisis may have reduced the efficiency with which inputs and outputs are allocated across firms. To investigate this, productivity growth is decomposed into productivity changes that occur because of developments within individual firms and productivity changes that occur because of changes in the efficiency with which resources are allocated across firms. If the banking crisis was an important contributor to UK productivity weakness, as distinct from recession, then the expectation is that productivity decline should have arisen in large part due to a drop in the efficiency with which resources are allocated across firms.The research develops from existing data sources measures of the impact of the banking sector crisis on bank credit conditions experienced by different types of UK companies. Next it gauges the importance of tight credit conditions on company performance adopting a quasi-experimental approach, comparing outcomes for firms who are likely to be vulnerable to tight credit conditions to outcomes for firms who are less likely to be vulnerable to tight credit conditions before and after the financial crisis. The banking crisis provides in essence a natural experiment for studying the impact of tight credit conditions on real economic outcomes. The research studies the impact of the financial crisis on a number of company performance measures, including productivity, investment, firm survival rates, and job creation.Although not the main focus, the extent of firm-level labour hoarding, and how this may have contributed to recent productivity weakness, is also analysed.