Centre for Population Change

在第一次气候变化方案会议的成就和经验教训的基础上，第二次气候变化方案会议的科学方案既反映了连续性，也反映了变化，继续侧重于生育率和家庭组成以及移徙，但纳入了流动的新层面，并探讨了寿命延长和生命历程变化的影响，以及一个新的跨领域主题，重点是人口变化如何影响代际关系和交流模式以及如何受代际关系和交流模式的影响。我们还计划继续努力制定创新方法和新办法，以模拟人口变化。我们在CPC-II的研究将围绕以下五个主题领域进行：1。生育率和家庭变化2。增加寿命和改变生命历程3.新的流动性和移民4.理解代际关系与交流5.综合人口估计和预测这些专题领域明确认识到人口变化的各个组成部分之间以及与经济和社会进程之间的动态相互作用。前三个主题反映了人口变化的三个主要组成部分：生育率、死亡率和移徙，并以第一次人口与发展会议的科学进展和成就为基础，将研究议程扩大到新的和新兴的领域。预期寿命的提高是二十世纪最伟大的成就之一。第二次人口普查旨在调查寿命延长和老年人人数增加对社会和经济的影响。我们还解决了不断变化的形状的生命历程，探讨人口和社会经济事件的时间，顺序和持续时间是如何相互作用，以重构生命历程，这可能会有所不同，并在队列和这种变化的影响，为设计生命历程敏感的社会政策。在移徙方面，第一次国家方案协调会的重点是国内和跨国移徙对人口和社会经济的影响，包括对劳动力和住房市场的影响。在CPC-II中，我们将研究“新的流动性”，“新的”流动性的驱动因素，以及不断变化的移民背景。我们将提供原创的见解，如在原地适应，返回或向前流动方面的流动轨迹的经济衰退的移民后果，以及收入预期对移民持续时间法术的作用。了解人口老龄化、家庭组成和解体的变化以及流动性（空间、经济和社会）增加等趋势如何既受国际关系和支助流动的影响，又反过来影响国际关系和支助流动，对于评估家庭在家庭以外的作用以及关于代际团结和正义的辩论至关重要。将通过新的交叉主题探讨这些领域，明确侧重于了解人口变化背景下的代际关系和交流。最后，第一次人口活动方案协调会最显著的成就之一是在创新方法和建模领域，第二次人口活动方案协调会将继续与国家统计局和其他国家统计机构密切合作，在人口建模发展的最前沿开展工作，第二次人口活动方案协调会将继续在经济、社会和文化权利委员会确定的三个关键领域作出贡献：设计学术研究，考虑到其政策影响和对社会中人的福祉的高度影响;在研究方案中纳入重要的能力建设内容，培训新兴的社会科学家，人口变化的学科领域;以及利用现有和新的定量数据来源，其中一些是ESRC的核心投资。与ONS和NRS以及其他用户的持续接触将确保我们的研究保持及时性和相关性。

Building on the achievements and lessons learned from CPC-I, the scientific programme for CPC-II reflects both continuity and change, with the continuation of a focus on fertility and family formation and on migration, but with the inclusion of new dimensions of mobility and the exploration of the implications of increasing longevity and the changing life course, as well a new cross-cutting theme focussing on how demographic change affects and is affected by patterns of intergenerational relations and exchange. We also plan to continue our work on innovative methodologies and new approaches to modelling population change. Our research in CPC-II will be organised around the five thematic areas of:1. Fertility and family change 2. Increasing longevity and the changing life course3. New mobilities and migration4. Understanding intergenerational relations & exchange5. Integrated demographic estimation and forecasting These thematic areas explicitly recognise the dynamic interaction of the individual components of population change both with each other and with economic and social processes. The first three themes reflect the three main components of population change: fertility, mortality and migration, and build on the scientific progress and achievements of CPC-I, extending the research agenda to address new and emergent areas. The rise in life expectancy is one of the greatest achievements of the twentieth century. CPC-II seeks to investigate the implications of longer lives, and a growing number of older people, for society and the economy. We also address the changing shape of the life course, exploring how the timing, sequencing and duration of demographic and socio-economic events are interacting to restructure the life course, how this may vary between and within cohorts and the implications of such changes for the design of life course-sensitive social policy. In terms of migration, the focus in CPC-I was on the demographic and socio-economic implications of national and transnational migration, including labour and housing market impacts. In CPC-II we will research 'new mobilities', 'new' both in terms of the drivers of movement but also in terms of the changing contexts of migration. We will offer original insights in areas such as the migration consequences of recession on mobility trajectories in terms of adaptation in situ, return or onward mobility, and the role of income expectations on emigration duration spells. Understanding how trends such as the ageing of the population, changes in family formation and dissolution and increased mobility (spatial, economic and social) are both shaped by and in turn shape international relations and flows of support is essential for assessing the role of the family beyond the household and for debates around intergenerational solidarity and justice. Such areas will be explored through the new cross-cutting theme, explicitly focussed on understanding intergenerational relations and exchange in the context of demographic change. Finally, one of the most notable successes of CPC-I has been in the area of innovative methods and modelling, and CPC-II will continue to work at the cutting edge of developments in demographic modelling, collaborating closely with ONS and other national statistical agencies.CPC-II will continue its contribution to three areas identified by the ESRC as of key importance: the design of academic research with a consideration for its policy implications and a high impact on the wellbeing of persons in society; the incorporation of a significant capacity-building element in the research programme with the training of emerging social scientists in the multi-disciplinary area of population change; and the exploitation of existing and newly-available sources of quantitative data, some of which are core ESRC investments. Continued engagement with ONS and NRS and other users will ensure our research remains timely and relevant.