Financial Volatility, Macroprudential Regulation and Economic Growth in Low-Income Countries

该项目的目的是在低收入发展中国家的背景下研究金融波动、宏观审慎监管和经济增长之间的相互作用。该项目将通过建立理论宏观经济模型、应用计量经济学技术和编写国别案例研究，以分析性和经验性的方式处理这些问题，目的是为设计宏观审慎规则汲取广泛的政策教训。项目将在三份政策简报中总结这些贡献的经验教训(共六篇理论和计量经济学论文，以及两份国别案例研究)，并将分发给更广泛的非学术受众。在两份理论贡献中，该项目将研究：(1)在薄弱的体制环境下，考虑到对借贷成本、私人资本积累和增长的影响，“稳健的”审慎规则如何能够减轻金融波动；(2)项目援助支付缺乏可预测性可能影响受援国政府制定中期支出计划以刺激增长的能力的渠道。这两份报告都将基于金融中介和信贷市场不完善的随机内生增长模型。在其四份经验报告中，该项目将讨论(1)金融监管对金融波动的影响及其随后通过减轻波动程度在促进经济增长中的作用；(2)援助及其波动以及汇款对增长和贫困的影响；(3)资本流动对实际汇率水平和不稳定的作用，以及这些流动对经济增长的影响。(4)信息共享(信用登记处和信用局)对撒哈拉以南非洲信贷结构的影响，这是一个金融发展仍然薄弱的区域。所有的实证研究都将使用最先进的动态面板数据估计技术，解决本文中突出的内生性和反向因果关系问题。这些研究将利用尽可能多的国家和年份，特别注意关于整个银行系统的监管和监督做法的信息来源。该项目还将开发两个案例研究，两个案例研究都侧重于讲法语的撒哈拉以南非洲地区。第一项研究的目的是评估西非经货联盟区域宏观审慎框架的相关性、易实施性和预期效果，而第二项研究将与该项目的第二个经验部分有关，在援助(或汇款)与国内生产总值的比率为：(一)反周期和不稳定，(二)反周期和稳定，(三)顺周期和不稳定，以及(四)顺周期和稳定的条件下，将确定四种情况。这些文件将汇集(I)适用于促进撒哈拉以南非洲增长的宏观审慎工具类型的各种文件的影响，(Ii)对撒哈拉以南非洲国家国际金融一体化的速度和性质的分析，以及(Iii)第二个案例研究。传播将包括向学术和面向政策的受众，包括参与发展的国家和国际机构进行介绍。在该项目期间将举办两次重要会议(一次在法国，另一次在塞内加尔)。将特别努力在讲法语的撒哈拉以南非洲地区传播，那里的政策制定者可能直接受益于从该项目中吸取的经验教训。

The aim of the project is to study interactions between financial volatility, macroprudential regulation, and economic growth, in the context of low-income developing countries. The project will tackle these issues both analytically and empirically through the construction of theoretical macroeconomic models, the application of econometric techniques, and the preparation of country case studies, with the aim of drawing broad policy lessons for the design of macroprudential rules. The lessons from these contributions (in all, six theoretical and econometric papers, and two country case studies) will be summarized in three policy briefs, which will be circulated to a wider, non-academic audience.In its two theoretical contributions, the project will study (i) how "robust" prudential rules are, in a weak institutional environment, in their ability to mitigate financial volatility, taking into account their impact on borrowing costs, private capital accumulation, and growth, and (ii) the channels through which the lack of predictability in project aid disbursements may affect the capacity of recipient governments to formulate medium-term spending plans to spur growth. Both contributions will be based on stochastic endogenous growth models with financial intermediation and credit market imperfections.In its four empirical contributions, the project will deal with (i) the impact of financial regulation on financial volatility and its subsequent role in promoting economic growth, by mitigating the degree of volatility, (ii) the impact of aid and its volatility, along with that of remittances, on growth and poverty, (iii) the role of capital movements on both the level and the instability of the real exchange rate, as well as the implications of these movements for economic growth, and (iv) the impact of information sharing (credit registries and credit bureaus) on the structure of credit in Sub-Saharan Africa, a region where financial development is still weak. All empirical studies will use state-of-the-art dynamic panel data estimation techniques that address issues of endogeneity and reverse causality, prominent in this literature. The studies will make use of the largest possible set of countries and years, with particular attention to the sources of information regarding the regulatory and supervisory practices across banking systems.The project will also develop two case studies, both of which focusing on French-speaking Sub-Saharan Africa. The purpose of the first study is to assess the relevance, the easiness to implement, and the expected effectiveness of a macroprudential framework for the WAEMU region, while the second study will be related to the second empirical component of the project where four cases will be identified under the condition that the aid (or remittances) to GDP ratio is (i) counter-cyclical and destabilizing, (ii) counter-cyclical and stabilizing, (iii) pro-cyclical and destabilizing, and (iv) pro-cyclical and stabilizing.The material developed in the above-cited contributions will serve as a basis for the preparation of three policy briefs, which will draw together the implications of (i) the various papers for the type of macroprudential tools that are appropriate for promoting growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, (ii) the analysis for the speed, and nature, of international financial integration for Sub-Saharan African countries, and (iii) the second case study. Dissemination will involve presentations to both academic and policy-oriented audiences, including national and international institutions involved in development. Two major conferences (one in France, the other in Senegal) will be organized during the course of the project. A particular effort will be made for dissemination in Francophone Sub-Saharan Africa, where policymakers are likely to benefit directly from the lessons drawn from the project.