Labor Outmigration, Agricultural Productivity and Food Security

我们建议在一个持续面临粮食安全问题的贫穷农业国调查劳动力外流对农业生产率的影响。我们的目标是回答三个高优先级的科学和政策问题：（a）劳动力外流在多大程度上影响（i）农业生产率，（ii）妇女参与农业，（iii）退出农业？(b)汇款是否影响㈠农业技术的使用，㈡妇女参与农业，㈢退出农业？(c)农业技术的使用和退出农业是否会影响随后的向外移民？据估计，全球有2.14亿人--大部分来自贫困的农业地区，流向工业化程度较高的国家--国际移民是学术和政策领域的一个关键问题。这一前所未有的现象对移徙者的输出地和接收地都产生了广泛的影响。本研究的重点是一个具体的，但至关重要的后果-劳动力外移对农业生产率的影响，在移民输出地区。由于贫穷的自给经济体的农业生产力与世界流行病问题之一：粮食安全密切相关。粮农组织估计，2010 - 2012年期间约有8.7亿人营养不良。其中绝大多数-8.52亿人生活在发展中国家。因此，提高贫穷国家的农业生产力是缓解这一问题的关键手段。该项目旨在更好地了解劳动力外流与农业之间的关系，为粮食安全问题的科学和政策制定提供重要信息。由于移民不是随机发生的，理解向外移民和农业之间的联系变得复杂。此外，农业做法的变化和移徙可能相互影响。因此，判断潜在互惠关系的经验要求很高，限制了以前的研究对这些问题的能力。为了解决这一复杂性，我们将利用奇旺谷家庭研究（CVFS），在社区一级的病例对照比较设计，在尼泊尔的社区，家庭和个人的分层系统样本的15年面板研究。这种不寻常的小组研究使我们能够解决非随机选择的个人迁移。此外，个案控制设计是特别强大的控制宏观层面的影响（如气候，价格和政策），以检测变化和变化的影响，在现象的利益：农业劳动力损失，汇款，农业技术的使用，农业生产力，妇女参与农业。尽管拥有丰富的面板数据，但回答我们的具体问题需要适度的新数据收集。我们建议的面板测量将涉及多模式混合方法数据收集，并具有适当的时间顺序和时间精度，以评估关系31。这项研究将产生高质量的科学成果，并将在世界各地广泛传播。这些结果是：（i）全面的面板数据，有可能解决令人困惑的方法问题;（ii）劳动力外流，农业生产率及其与性别相互作用的后果的经验证据。首先，将通过国际公共政策研究委员会和联合王国数据服务处提供数据，并通过网站向更广泛的受众提供出版物。第二，将通过在国家和国际会议上的发言以及发表科学文章、研究简报和政策简报，在科学界传播研究结果。最后，我们的能力建设培训还将提高东道国机构（AFU，NARC等）的教师和科学家的科学和分析能力。

We propose to investigate the consequences of labor outmigration on agricultural productivity in a poor agricultural country persistently facing food security problems. We aim to answer three high-priority scientific and policy questions: To what extent(a) Does labor outmigration influence (i) agricultural productivity, (ii) women's participation in farming, and (iii) exit from farming?(b) Do remittances influence (i) farm technology use, (ii) women's participation in farming, and (iii) exit from farming?(c) Do farm technology use and exit from farming influence subsequent outmigration?With an estimated 214 million people l--mostly from poor agricultural regions to more industrialized countries-international migration is a key concern in scholarly and policy arenas. This unprecedented phenomenon has wide-ranging consequences both for migrant-sending and receiving locations. This study focuses on one specific, but crucial consequence - the impact of labor outmigration on agricultural productivity in migrant-sending areas. As the agriculture productivity in poor subsistence economies is closely connected with one of the world's epidemic problems: food security. FAO estimated about 870 million people were undernourished in the period 2010-12. The vast majority of these - 852 million live in developing countries. Thus, increased agricultural productivity in poor countries is a key tool for alleviating this problem. This proposed project aims to better understand the relationship between labor outmigration and agriculture, providing crucial information for scientific and policy development of food security concerns. Understanding the link between outmigration and agriculture is complicated by the fact that migration does not happen randomly. Additionally, changes in agricultural practices and migration are likely to influence each other. Thus, the empirical demands for adjudicating potential reciprocal relationships are high, limiting the ability of previous research to speak to these questions. To address this complication, we will leverage the Chitwan Valley Family Study (CVFS), a case control comparison design at the community level with a 15-year panel study of a stratified systematic sample of communities, households, and individuals in Nepal. This unusual panel study enables us to address the non-random selection of individuals into migration. Furthermore, the case control design is particularly powerful for controlling macro-level effects (e.g. climate, prices, and policies) to detect the effect of change and variation in the phenomena of interest: farm labor loss, remittances, farm technology use, agricultural productivity, and women's participation in farming. Despite the wealth of panel data, answering our specific questions requires a modest level of new data collection. Our proposed panel measurement will involve multi-mode mixed methods data collection with appropriate temporal order and timing precision necessary to assess the relationships31. This study will generate high quality scientific outcomes that will be widely disseminated around the world. These outcomes are (i) comprehensive panel data with potential to address perplexing methodological problems; and (ii) empirical evidence of the consequences of labor outmigration, agricultural productivity, and its interplay with gender. First the data will be made available through ICPSR and UK Data Service and publications through websites will be provided to broader audiences. Second, the findings will be disseminated among the scientific communities through presentations at national and international conferences and publication of scientific articles, research briefs, and policy briefs. Finally, our capacity building training will also enhance scientific and analytical capacity of faculty and scientists of host country institutions (AFU, NARC and others).