Explaining and Sustaining the Decline in Stranger, Acquaintance and Domestic Violence

在英格兰和威尔士的犯罪调查中，暴力事件占犯罪记录的近四分之一。其影响不仅仅是对受害者个人的情感和身体伤害，还包括对医疗保健的影响、刑事司法系统的成本、工作时间的损失以及对犯罪的社会恐惧。与获取性犯罪不同，其动机（以及相应的预防机制）可以说不那么明显。因此，必须查明个人安全和日常活动中可能与暴力趋势有关的变化。迄今为止，还没有进行过系统的研究来评估这些因素对熟人暴力和陌生人暴力的保护作用。所提出的研究正是与这样一种评估有关。主要的研究问题是：在解释陌生人和熟人暴力的减少时，个人安全和日常活动的特定人群群体和环境变化的作用是什么？这项研究将确定个人安全和日常活动措施，这些措施可有效防止对(a)全体人口的暴力和重复暴力；(b)按其社会经济属性划分的特定人口分组；(c)不同地区的居民；(d)英格兰和威尔士以及国际上随着时间推移的地区类型和人口亚群的合理组合。了解暴力预防的紧迫性不能被夸大：在大规模削减公共开支和增加紧缩措施的时候，暴力给英国经济造成的损失估计为每年130亿英镑（国家审计署2008年）。建议的研究将：-作出重大的科学贡献，对社会和经济产生直接和重大的影响。其理论和方法的进步将为犯罪学未来的研究发展提供信息。目前的知识差距阻碍了减少暴力的机会，不仅在英国，而且在世界各地。-始终与公共部门和民间社会组织的高级别研究用户接触，并通报有关预防暴力的国家和国际准则。-分析二十年来强大的现有数据源，英格兰和威尔士犯罪调查（CSEW）和国际犯罪受害者调查（ICVS），都在公共领域，允许创造性和想象力的应用和数据链接通过比较工作。CSEW是一个庞大而复杂的数据集，目前每年约有40,000名受访者。ICVS是一个独特的比较犯罪数据，部分由内政部资助和组织。然而，相对于数据生成成本和无可挑剔的质量而言，它们的开发程度非常低。-在犯罪学中采用创新的研究方法和应用。这包括安全影响评估工具和多元多层次logit模型，这是由ESRC支持的共同申请人首创的，分别用于评估入室盗窃和汽车安全装置的有效性，并检查上下文对入室盗窃风险和安全之间关系的影响；多重负二项模型，由P-I在美国统计协会和内政部的支持下首创，用于调查环境对单一和重复受害模式的影响；障碍模型显示重复受害者是否与其他人不同。-与非学术合作伙伴，国家慈善机构受害者支持和诺丁汉犯罪和毒品伙伴关系合作，对调查结果进行三角测量，获取进一步的数据，并确保调查结果直接适用于暴力犯罪的受害者。-受益于国际合作调查员的合作。因此，提出的研究符合ESRC-SDAI第二阶段呼叫规范。迄今为止，共同申请者在理论、方法和政策方面的贡献确保了其成功实施。

Violent incidents make up nearly a quarter of crimes recorded in the Crime Survey for England and Wales. The effects are not just those of emotional and physical harm to the individual victim but spread much wider in terms of the impact on healthcare, cost to the criminal justice system, lost working hours, and a societal fear of crime. Unlike acquisitive crimes the motive (and therefore appropriate preventive mechanisms) is arguably less apparent. As such, it is important to identify those changes in personal security and routine activities which can be associated with trends in violence. No systematic research studies have been undertaken to assess the protective impact of these factors in relation to acquaintance and stranger violence, examined separately, to date. The research proposed is precisely concerned with such an assessment. The primary research question is: What is the role of population group- and context- specific changes in personal security and routine activities in explaining the decline in stranger and acquaintance violence?This study will identify the personal security and routine activities measures that offer effective protection from violence and repeat violence to (a) the population overall; (b) specific population subgroups according to their socio-economic attributes; (c) the residents of different areas; and (d) area types and population subgroups plausible combinations in England and Wales and internationally over time.The urgency to gain insights about violence prevention cannot be exaggerated: at a time of massive public spending cuts and increasing austerity measures, the cost of violence to the UK economy is estimated at £13 billion annually (National Audit Office 2008). The proposed research will: - Make a major scientific contribution with immediate and high societal and economic impact. Its theoretical and methodological advancements will inform future research developments in criminology. The current gap in knowledge impedes violence reduction opportunities not just in the UK but across the world. - Engage throughout with high level research users in the public sector and civil society organisations and inform national and international guidelines on violence prevention. - Analyse two decades of formidable existing data sources, the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) and the International Crime Victims Survey (ICVS), both in the public domain, to allow creative and imaginative application and data linking via comparative work. The CSEW is a large and complex dataset with currently some 40,000 respondents annually. The ICVS is a unique comparative crime data partly funded and organised by the Home Office. Yet relative to both data generation cost and their impeccable quality, they have been extremely under-explored.- Employ innovative research methodology and application in criminology. This includes the Security Impact Assessment Tool and multivariate multilevel logit modelling, pioneered by the co-applicants with ESRC support for assessing the effectiveness of burglary and car security devices and examining the effect of context on the relation between burglary risk and security, respectively; multilevel negative binomial modelling, pioneered by the P-I with American Statistical Association and Home Office support for investigating the effect of context on single and repeat victimisation patterns; and hurdle models which show whether repeat victims differ from others. - Engage non-academic partners, the national charity Victim Support and the Nottingham Crime and Drugs Partnership, to triangulate findings, access further data, and ensure direct applicability of findings to victims of violent crime.- Benefit from collaboration with International Co- Investigators.Therefore the proposed research fits the ESRC-SDAI Phase 2 call specification. The co-applicants' theoretical, methodological and policy contribution to date ensure its successful delivery.