Which burglary security devices work for whom and in what context?

家庭入室盗窃是一种影响许多家庭的高数量犯罪。除了巨大的经济损失和财产损失外，它还会引起人们对被盗可能性的高度焦虑。调查记录了公众对犯罪的优先考虑，将入室盗窃排在首位。防盗警报器和其他安全装置原则上可以阻止潜在的窃贼。由于市场文献中关于防盗报警器和其他安全设备的有效性的声明，当家中存在一个完全运行的防盗报警器时，保险费会打折扣，但没有进行系统的研究来评估它们在不同地区，住宿类型和居住者特征中的有效性。所提出的研究正是与这样一种评估有关。主要的研究问题是：哪种防盗装置对谁有效，在什么情况下有效？本研究将确定为(a)英格兰和威尔士整体人口提供具有成本效益的入室盗窃保护的单个和组合安全装置；(b)按其社会经济属性划分的特定人口分组；(c)威尔士居民，按人口、社会人口结构和密度划分的九个英格兰大区和地区类型；(d)区域类型和人口亚群的合理组合。为量身定制的预防干预措施而深入了解入室盗窃装置的成本效益的紧迫性不容夸大：在大规模削减公共开支和可支配收入下降的时候，最新的内政部数据显示，在延长（15年）的下降期之后，2010/11年国内入室盗窃的年增长率为14% （Chaplin et al. 2011）。社区和地方政府部门（2012）最近强调了对具有成本效益的入室盗窃安全设备的研究证据的需求，以告知正在进行的国家建筑法规对家庭安全最低标准的审议。拟议的研究将：-作出重大的科学贡献，对社会和经济产生直接和高度的影响。其理论和方法的进步将为犯罪学未来的研究发展提供信息。目前的知识差距阻碍了具有成本效益的入室盗窃预防，不仅在英国，而且在世界各地，浪费的财务决策是无法承受的。-始终与公共部门和民间社会组织的高水平研究用户保持联系，并告知有关入室盗窃的国家和国际指导方针。研究结果将定期传达给私营部门（安全和保险业）的用户，但他们不会为其发展作出贡献，以避免利益冲突。-分析二十年来一个强大的现有数据来源，英国犯罪调查（BCS）。BCS是一个庞大而复杂的数据集，目前每年有大约4万名受访者存在于公共领域，已经运行了30年。然而，相对于数据生成的成本和无可挑剔的质量，它还没有得到充分的探索。-采用创新研究技术，深入利用BCS，包括安全影响评估工具，该工具由ESRC支持的共同申请人首创，用于评估汽车安全设备的有效性，以及多元多层次logit模型，以调查背景对相关犯罪类型趋势的影响。-在分析大型和复杂数据集方面建立国家技能基础，并通过积极寻求从传统BCS用户以外的学科（数学、统计、科学或工程）聘请全职研究人员，扩大犯罪学有限的二级数据分析能力。因此，本研究符合ESRC-SDAI呼叫规范。迄今为止，共同申请者在理论、方法和政策方面的贡献确保了其成功实施。

Domestic burglary is a high volume crime affecting many households. As well as substantial financial loss and damage to property, it causes high levels of anxiety about the possibility of being burgled. Surveys documenting public priorities about crime place burglary at the top. Burglar alarms and other security devices in principle deter potential burglars. Insurance premiums are discounted when a fully operating burglar alarm exists in the home due to claims about the effectiveness of burglar alarms and other security devices in the marketing literature, but no systematic research studies have been undertaken to assess their effectiveness in different areas, accommodation types and occupants' characteristics. The research proposed is precisely concerned with such an assessment. The primary research question is: Which burglary security devices work for whom and in what context?This study will identify the individual and combined security devices that offer cost-effective burglary protection to (a) the population in England and Wales overall; (b) specific population subgroups according to their socio-economic attributes; (c) the residents of Wales, each of the nine English regions and area types according to population socio-demographic profile and density; and (d) area types and population subgroups plausible combinations. The urgency to gain insights about the cost-effectiveness of burglary devices for tailor-made preventive interventions cannot be exaggerated: at a time of massive public spending cuts and declining disposable incomes the latest Home Office figures show a 14% annual increase in domestic burglary in 2010/11 after an extended (fifteen years) period of falls (Chaplin et al. 2011). The Department for Communities and Local Government (2012) has recently highlighted the need of research evidence on cost-effective burglary security devices to inform the on-going deliberation on national building regulation for minimum standards for security in homes.The proposed research will: -Make a major scientific contribution with immediate and high societal and economic impact. Its theoretical and methodological advancements will inform future research developments in criminology. The current gap in knowledge impedes cost-effective burglary prevention not just in the UK but across the world at a time that wasteful financial decisions are unaffordable. -Engage throughout with high level research users in the public sector and civil society organisations and inform national and international guidelines on burglary prevention. The research results will be regularly conveyed to users in the private sector (the security and insurance industry) who however will not contribute to their development to avoid conflict of interest. -Analyse two decades of a formidable existing data source, the British Crime Survey (BCS). The BCS is a large and complex dataset with currently some 40,000 respondents annually that exists in the public domain, and has been run for three decades. Yet, relative to both data generation cost and its impeccable quality, it has been extremely under-explored. -Employ innovative research techniques for the deeper exploitation of the BCS, including the Security Impact Assessment Tool, pioneered by the co-applicants with ESRC support to assess the effectiveness of car security devices, as well as the multivariate multilevel logit modelling, to investigate the effect of context on trends of related crime types. -Build the national skills base in the analysis of large and complex datasets and expand the limited secondary data analysis capacity in criminology via actively seeking to employ a full time researcher from disciplines (mathematics, statistics, sciences or engineering) beyond traditional BCS users.Therefore the proposed research fits the ESRC-SDAI call specification. The co-applicants' theoretical, methodological and policy contribution to date ensure its successful delivery.