Scottish Referendum Study 2014

2014年9月，16岁以上的苏格兰居民将可以参加苏格兰独立公投。全民投票提供了进行有意义的宪法改革的可能性，也是选举权方面的一个重要开端，将投票权扩大到16岁和17奥尔兹。我们将在全民投票前进行一次网上调查，以确定影响投票意向和投票可能性的因素，并在全民投票后进行两次进一步调查，以确定人们是否以及为什么这样投票。这将是一个小组研究，使用相同的受访者之前和之后，以便我们可以确定如何将意图转化为行为，并看到预期如何影响对公投结果的反应。我们将探讨个人是否决定投票以及如何决定投票，以及这些过程与苏格兰或英国的选举有何不同。我们将重点关注竞选活动本身的影响，以及竞选活动如何与投票决定的时间、对不同宪法选项的了解和感知的不确定性相互作用。其中一部分涉及描述有关苏格兰民意性质的基本事实。这包括全面评估苏格兰对不同宪法选择的偏好。公投提供了一个二元选择，但民意调查长期以来一直表明，所谓的“中间立场”吸引了大多数选民。我们将探讨不同的宪法选项的偏好之间的关系，以及这些选项之间的区别。这将使我们能够确定苏格兰宪法选择的结构，一致性和偏好的决定因素。在整个过程中，我们将定位苏格兰的调查结果在一个比较的背景下，从其他宪法公投的数据和研究借鉴。我们的具体研究问题源于选举和公投中的投票行为的不同理论。他们关注的是不确定性的影响，支持失败一方的人的反应，宪法变革在多大程度上与政策或身份有关，不同性别的偏好差异以及这为16岁和17奥尔兹提供的独特的社会化参与选举，他们中的许多人将无法在2015年英国大选中投票。我们渴望为公众辩论做出贡献，并促进参与研究过程。为此，我们将在调查开始前举行咨询活动，邀请学术研究人员和中学生提出调查问题。关于调查结果的交流，在线研究的一个好处是，它有助于快速发布数据，以便我们能够通过分析确定支持不同选项的选民类型，为关于全民投票结果的公开辩论做出贡献。我们将举办简报活动，并制作简报文件，以及为学术期刊和合著的书产生高质量的学术研究。此外，我们还将举办几次能力建设活动，以促进中学生和大学生获得数据和进行数据分析。

In September 2014 Scottish residents aged 16+ will be able to vote in a referendum on independence for Scotland. The referendum offers the possibility of meaningful constitutional change, as well as a key departure in terms of the electoral franchise by extending the right to vote to 16 and 17 year olds. We will conduct an online survey before the referendum to identify the factors that will influence vote intention and likelihood of voting and two further surveys after the referendum to identify whether and why people voted the way they did. This will be a panel study, using the same respondents before and after so that we can determine how intentions translate into behaviour, and see how expectations influence reactions to the referendum result.We will explore whether and how individuals decide to vote and how these processes might differ from those in elections at the Scottish or UK level. We will focus on the impact of the campaign itself and how campaign engagement might interact with the timing of vote decisions, knowledge of and perceived uncertainty about different constitutional options. Part of this involves describing fundamental facts about the nature of public opinion in Scotland. This includes a comprehensive assessment of preferences for different constitutional options in Scotland. The referendum offers a binary choice but polling has long demonstrated that the perceived 'middle ground' attracts most voters. We will explore the relationships among preferences for different constitutional options as well as knowledge of what distinguishes these options from each other. This will allow us to identify the structure, consistency and determinants of preferences about constitutional options in Scotland. Throughout we will locate Scottish findings within a comparative context, drawing on data and research from other constitutional referendums.Our specific research questions stem from different theories of voting behaviour in elections and referendums. They focus on the impact of uncertainty, on the reaction of those who backed the losing side, on the extent to which constitutional change is about policy or identity, on variations in preferences across genders and the unique socialization into electoral participation that this offers to 16 and 17 year olds, many of whom will be unable to vote in the 2015 UK general election.We are eager to contribute to public debate and facilitate engagement with the research process. To this end we will hold consultation events before the survey begins and will invite academic researchers and secondary students to suggest questions for the survey. With respect to the communication of findings, one benefit of online research is that it facilitates the quick release of data so that we will be able to contribute to public debate about the referendum result with analysis that identifies the types of voters who backed different options. We will conduct briefing events and produce briefing papers, as well as generate top quality academic research for academic journals and a co-authored book. In addition we will hold several capacity building events to facilitate access to data and data analysis for secondary school and university students.