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Scottish Election Study 2021-2025

2021-2025 年苏格兰选举研究

基本信息

批准号：
ES/V01000X/1
负责人：
Ailsa Henderson
金额：
$ 122.96万
依托单位：
University of Edinburgh
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2021 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FV01000X%2F1
关键词：
Scottish Election Study 2021 2025

项目摘要

The sixth election to the Scottish Parliament is scheduled for 6 May 2021. Scottish elections were already seen both as important and as national elections; since the independence referendum in 2014 they have taken on added significance for Scotland's future. We therefore propose the Scottish Election Study (SES) 2021-25: both a national election study for this key contest and an opportunity to track opinion into and beyond the election.Two decades of studying Holyrood elections have generated several findings. First, of course, voting in Scotland has become closely aligned with support for independence. Second, this is not the whole story. Other factors, notably the performance of the government on devolved issues and the perceptions of the other parties as willing to stand up for Scotland against Westminster, also play a role. Third, devolved elections matter to voters. They are not widely seen as a chance to take a punt on smaller parties or a free hit at the Westminster government: they are primarily about choosing a Scottish government. Big questions remain, however - about this election, about devolution and about Scotland's constitutional future. Some of these derive from the fact that this will be the first major British election since the Covid-19 pandemic and the UK's departure from the European Union. Will these sideline or intensify the arguments about independence? Others relate to ongoing or new debates in research on Scottish politics and elections. How do voters decide which level of government is responsible for the state of Scotland's economy, schools and hospitals, and do they reward or punish the right people? Is the Scottish government held accountable for its manifesto pledges or is this all overshadowed by independence? Has Scotland come to resemble the US in terms of 'affective polarisation': a place in which people not only disagree about independence but stereotype, distrust or even hate the other side? Is the poor turnout record at Scottish Parliament elections the result of voters' uninterest or parties' campaigning behaviour? To address these and other questions, we propose a range of activities generating data to be swiftly shared with the wider academic community. The first is the core Election Study, a two-wave survey of 4,000 Scots conducted in the last month of the 2021 campaign and in the fortnight afterwards. This contains core questions on voting behaviour, expectations of and assessments of the election, as well as numerous measures of background and attitudes helping us to explain vote choices. How people vote also depends in part on opinions and perceptions shaped in the years between elections. We know voters change their minds about leaders, parties and governments. What drives this - events, government performance, new information, social interactions, and so on - is often less clear. We propose a brand new SCOttish OPinion (SCOOP) monitor, three short surveys per year. This enables us to track opinion over a critical period as well as to pick out the long-term dynamics of electoral choice. It also provides a vehicle for our own and the community's questions and experiments, evaluating, for instance, the extent of polarisation or how far people make deliberative decisions when presented with information.The SES package contains several other components:a) election agent surveys to evaluate campaigning in this (post-Covid-19) election and how it differs from Westminster elections;b) resources for journalists, practitioners, teachers and the public, including constituency profiles, maps, briefing papers, teaching materials and quick access to data;c) unprecedented collaboration with the Welsh and Northern Irish Election Study teams on questionnaire content, analysis and dissemination;d) capacity building for ECRs in this difficult climate, including Winter Schools on Devolved Electoral Behaviour to teach best practice, offer mentorship and build networks

第六届苏格兰议会选举定于2021年5月6日举行。苏格兰选举已经被视为既重要又是全国性的选举;自2014年独立公投以来，它们对苏格兰的未来具有更重要的意义。因此，我们提出了苏格兰选举研究（SES）2021-25：这一关键竞争的全国选举研究，并有机会跟踪意见和超越选举。二十年的研究霍利鲁德选举产生了几个结果。当然，首先，苏格兰的投票已经与支持独立密切相关。第二，这不是故事的全部。其他因素，特别是政府在权力下放问题上的表现，以及其他政党愿意站出来支持苏格兰对抗威斯敏斯特的看法，也发挥了作用。第三，权力下放的选举对选民很重要。他们并不被广泛认为是一个机会，采取赌注对较小的政党或免费打击威斯敏斯特政府：他们主要是关于选择一个苏格兰政府。然而，关于这次选举、权力下放和苏格兰宪法的未来，大问题依然存在。其中一些原因是，这将是自2019冠状病毒病大流行和英国脱离欧盟以来的首次英国重大选举。这些会削弱或加剧有关独立的争论吗？其他涉及正在进行的或新的辩论，在苏格兰政治和选举的研究。选民如何决定哪一级政府对苏格兰的经济、学校和医院状况负责，他们是奖励还是惩罚正确的人？苏格兰政府是要为自己的宣言承诺负责，还是这一切都被独立蒙上了阴影？苏格兰是否在“情感两极分化”方面变得与美国相似：在这个地方，人们不仅不同意独立，而且刻板印象，不信任甚至憎恨另一方？苏格兰议会选举投票率低是选民不感兴趣还是政党竞选行为的结果？为了解决这些问题和其他问题，我们提出了一系列活动，以生成与更广泛的学术界迅速共享的数据。首先是核心选举研究，这是一项在2021年竞选活动的最后一个月和之后两周内对4，000名苏格兰人进行的两波调查。这包括关于投票行为、对选举的期望和评估的核心问题，以及帮助我们解释投票选择的许多背景和态度措施。人们如何投票也部分取决于选举之间几年形成的意见和看法。我们知道选民会改变对领导人、政党和政府的看法。推动这一趋势的因素--事件、政府绩效、新信息、社会互动等等--往往不太清楚。我们提出了一个全新的苏格兰意见（SCOOP）监测，每年三个短期调查。这使我们能够在关键时期跟踪民意，并找出选举选择的长期动态。社会经济局局长调查亦提供一个工具，让我们和社会人士提出问题和进行实验，例如评估两极分化的程度，或市民在获得资料后作出审慎决定的程度。（后Covid-19）选举及其与威斯敏斯特选举的不同之处; B）为记者、从业人员、教师和公众提供的资源，包括选区概况、地图、简报文件、教材和快速获取数据; c）与威尔士和北方爱尔兰选举研究小组在调查问卷内容、分析和传播方面开展了前所未有的合作;d）在这种困难的环境下为选举委员会进行能力建设，包括关于权力下放选举行为的冬季学校，以教授最佳做法，提供指导和建立网络