The UK/Ireland Border and the Stability of Peace and Security in Northern Ireland: Evidence from two Deliberative Democracy Exercises

任何社会的和平与稳定都有赖于公民接受政治和法律安排的合法性，在北爱尔兰尤其如此，那里的和平政治是漫长而艰难的“和平进程”的近期成果。了解英国退出欧盟后不同可能的边界安排被认为非法(不可接受)的可能程度和强度，将为政策制定者在评估不同边界选项的相对优点时提供关键证据，特别是在政治可持续性的标准和对北爱尔兰和平与稳定的可能影响方面。随着北爱尔兰政客在议会选举中进行政治竞选，以及可能即将举行的重新建立权力分享行政机构的党际谈判，可以说特别重要的是，系统地报告公民对英国退出欧盟这一关键问题的深思熟虑的观点。我们进行了两次“协商民主”活动，让北爱尔兰公民有空间和相关信息来考虑英国退欧和边境这一具有挑战性的问题。一旦他们了解了这些问题并进行了反思，我们就请市民提出自己的意见。我们重点回答了以下问题。天主教徒/民族主义者接受治安严密的南北边界有多难，他们会容忍多大程度的抗议？新教徒/工会主义者接受警戒的东西方边界有多难，他们会容忍多大程度的抗议？我们试图为政策制定者提供这些问题的循证答案。当政策制定者考虑英国退欧后边界对北爱尔兰和平与稳定的可能影响时，这些证据将被证明特别有用。我们生成一份报告，总结我们的关键发现，并提出我们的关键证据。我们还制作了一部动画短片，以戏剧性的、简单的和令人兴奋的方式将我们的主要发现传达给观众。我们热衷于向负责谈判英国退出欧盟的关键委员会、机构和特定政客提交意见书。我们通过强调某些撤离后边界设想可能对北爱尔兰的和平与稳定产生的影响，为他们的工作作出贡献。

Peace and stability in any society is dependent upon citizen acceptance of the legitimacy of political and legal arrangements, and particularly so in Northern Ireland where peaceful politics is a recent outcome of a long and difficult 'peace process'. Knowing the likely level and intensity of perceived illegitimacy (non-acceptability) of different possible border arrangements after the UK leaves the EU would provide policy makers with crucial evidence when evaluating the relative merits of different border options, particularly with respect to the criteria of political sustainability and likely impact on peace and stability in Northern Ireland. With Northern Ireland's politicians engaged in political campaigning in an Assembly election and likely impending inter-party talks to re-establish a power sharing executive, it is arguably particularly important that there is a systematic reporting of the considered views of citizens on this crucial issue of the UK's exit from the EU. We conduct two "deliberative democracy" exercises which allow Northern Ireland citizens the space and relevant information to consider the challenging issue of Brexit and the border. Once they have become informed about the issues and reflected upon them, we ask the citizens to put forward their own views. We are focused on answering the following questions. How difficult would it be for Catholics/nationalists to accept a policed North/South border and what level of protest would they condone? How difficult would it be for Protestants/unionists to accept a policed East/West border and what level of protest would they condone? We seek to provide policy makers with evidence-based answers to the these questions. This evidence will prove to be especially useful when policy makers are considering the likely implications of the post-Brexit border for peace and stability in Northern Ireland.We generate a report which summarises our key findings and presents our key evidence. We also produce a short animated film which gets across to the viewer in a dramatic, simple and exciting way our key findings. We engage enthusiastically in submissions to the key committees, bodies and specific politicians who have responsibility for negotiating the UK exit from the EU. We contribute to their work by highlighting the likely implications, for peace and stability in Northern Ireland, of pursuing certain post-exit border scenarios.