UK in a Changing Europe Fellowship

退欧后，英国应该加入哪些类型的贸易协定？由多边、超区域和双边贸易协定组成的世界贸易体系为英国贸易的未来提供了多种前进道路。走哪条路关键取决于对以下问题的回答：重叠的国际贸易协定的复杂特征如何影响参与全球业务的公司的选择？贸易政策和贸易伙伴之间对国内政策的承诺如何影响企业进入和退出外国市场、设定价格和出口量以及采用生产技术的决定？英国未来的贸易协定必须在世界贸易体系未来走向不确定的全球环境中制定。最大的多边协议世界贸易组织正在艰难应对国际经济政策中的一些最棘手的问题，包括国家对工业的支持和知识产权保护。像欧洲单一市场这样的大型地区性协议面临着严重的抱怨，这些协议的规则和做法侵犯了国家主权，缺乏普遍的民主支持。双边和较小的区域协议正在激增，但它们在创造贸易方面的价值似乎差别很大。在这项研究中，我将进行研究，以更好地了解个别公司对政府政策和国际协议的反应如何汇总到全球贸易流动中，从而影响福利。首先，我将进行实证研究，估计一个企业和产品层面的贸易引力模型，详细介绍双边关税优惠和贸易协定条款的内容。该项目将就英国公司的全球投入来源选择以及具体贸易协定条款对这些决定的影响向政策制定者提供宝贵的指导。为了评估贸易协定的影响，政策制定者使用标准经济模型，这些模型假设一个国家的市场是有竞争力的--也就是说，企业没有权力将价格提高到成本之上。我建议建立一个多国贸易模式，以生产者之间的寡头垄断竞争、收取可变加价和使用当地分销服务为特征。因此，最终消费者价格将体现在外国生产成本、由外国生产商收取的全球和特定目的地的加价以及当地分销利润率。将这一模型应用于对拟议的双边、区域或多边贸易协定的分析，将突出不同类型贸易协定下公司和工业部门国际和国内价格变化的异质性。最后，我将研究公司在国际销售开具发票时所选择的货币。国际贸易建立在不同货币的微观交易基础上。出口商定价所用的货币，决定了汇率变动对国际贸易商品相对价格的影响程度，并对出口量和进口量将如何应对大规模汇率冲击产生影响。两个项目将研究(1)国外市场的竞争如何影响公司对发票货币的选择，以及(2)公司用于海外销售的不同货币数量与公司可获得的融资之间的关系。这项研究将填补政策制定者对英国贸易知识的重要空白，这些空白可以用来更好地预测不同拟议贸易安排的可能结果。无论英国退欧采取何种形式，都需要具体的事实和更准确的模型来评估政策，这是毋庸置疑的。

What types of trade agreements should the UK join post-Brexit? The world trading system, comprised of multilateral, mega-regional, and bilateral trade agreements offers multiple paths forward for the future of UK trade. Which path to take depends crucially upon answers to questions like: How do the complex features of overlapping international trade agreements impact the choices of globally-engaged firms? How do trade policy and commitments over domestic policy among trading partners affects firms' decisions to enter and exit foreign markets, set prices and export volumes, and adopt production technologies? The UK's future trade agreements must be crafted in a global environment in which the future direction of the world trading system is uncertain. The largest multilateral agreement, the World Trade Organization, is struggling to cope with some of the most intractable problems in international economic policy, including state support of industry and the protection of intellectual property. Mega-regional agreements, like the European Single Market, face serious complaints about rules and practices that infringe on national sovereignty and lack popular democratic support. Bilateral and smaller regional agreements are proliferating, but their value in creating trade seems to vary considerably. Under this Fellowship, I will conduct research to better understand how individual firm responses to government policy and international agreements aggregate to global trade flows and, hence, impact welfare. Firstly, I will conduct empirical research estimating a firm and product level gravity model of trade, with detailed information on bilateral tariff preferences and the content of trade agreements provisions. This project will provide valuable guidance to policymakers regarding the global input sourcing choices of UK firms and the influence that specific trade agreements provisions exert over these decisions. To evaluate the impacts of trade agreements, policymakers use standard economic models that assume markets within a country are competitive - that is, firms have no power to markup their prices over cost. I propose to build a multi-country model of trade featuring oligopolistic competition among producers charging variable markups and the use of local distribution services. Final consumer prices will thus embody foreign production costs, a global and destination-specific markup charged by the foreign producer, and a local distribution margin. Applying this model to analysis of proposed bilateral, regional, or multilateral trade agreements will highlight heterogeneity in changes to international and domestic prices across firms and industrial sectors under different types of trade agreements. Finally, I will examine firms' choices of currencies in which to invoice their international sales. International trade is founded on micro transactions in different currencies. The currency in which exporters set their prices determines the degree to which movements in exchange rates affect the relative prices of internationally traded goods with implications for how export and import volumes will respond to large exchange rate shocks. Two projects will examine how (1) competition in foreign markets influences a firm's choice of an invoicing currency and (2) the relationship between the number of different currencies a firm uses for its foreign sales and the financing available to a firm. This research will fill important gaps in policymakers' knowledge about UK trade which can be used to better predict the likely outcomes of different proposed trading arrangements. Regardless of the form Brexit takes, the need for concrete facts and more accurate models to evaluate policy is indisputable.