Constructing the decision environment from memory: how overweighting extreme events biases choice

决策涉及通过考虑每个结果的概率和回报程度来在备选方案中进行选择。在某些情况下，比如阅读药物的副作用，这些概率和结果会被列出，而在另一些情况下，比如发现一种新的食物过敏，我们需要从经验中学习。我们的记忆会影响我们所做的决定。有些事情，比如非常有意义的事件，比其他事情更容易被记住，因此更有可能影响我们的决定。对特定事件的记忆可能会如何影响决策？想象一下，你在度假，你去买牛奶。你可以左转走3分钟到报刊亭，也可以右转走3分钟到超市。让我们假设，在过去的四次你去报刊店买牛奶[GB 1.50，GB 0.95，1.40，GB 1]，在超市你付了[GB 1.23，GB 1.26，GB 1.25，GB 1.22]。所以，平均而言，你在两家商店支付的价格都是一样的。为了决定走哪条路，你可能会从记忆中抽出一些经历。你会抽检哪些物品，然后如何比较这些物品？你可能会想起有一次，你找到了一个便宜货，付了0.95英镑，然后高兴地右转。然而，你可能会很容易地多付了钱，所以你最好回想一下你花了1.50 GB的时间。您的决定取决于尚未在相同上下文中进行检查的过程：1)您最初编码了哪些事件；2)您从记忆中采集了多少经验及其“价值”；以及3)您如何比较样本中的项目。研究表明，人们在做出决定时更有可能依赖极端信息，这可能会增加冒险行为。这种现象背后的确切记忆机制尚不清楚。这个项目调查了我们对奖励事件(包括极端事件)的记忆如何有助于决策和高风险的选择。拟议的研究将使用一套由计算模型支持的理论驱动的实验来解决这个问题。在一系列实验中，我们将评估健康的人如何在记忆中编码、存储和提取奖励，并利用这些记忆做出决定。我们将开发计算机模型来理解记忆是如何引导风险选择的。该项目将增加我们对记忆在高风险决策中的作用的理解，并帮助我们找到治疗干预的新方法。许多人的日常决策和选择与健康相关的生活方式、经济储蓄、购买行为和环境选择都受到对过去经历的记忆的严重影响。这项研究将支持开发更好、更有效的选择架构干预措施。如果我们能够更好地理解人们如何从记忆中检索信息，以及检索到的信息如何支持选择，我们将能够开发出促进或轻推记忆以改善选择的干预措施。

Decision-making involves choosing between alternatives by considering the probability of each outcome and how rewarding it will be. In some situations, such as reading the side effects of a medication, these probabilities and outcomes are listed and in others, such discovering a new food allergy, we need to learn them from experience. What we remember influences the decisions we make. Some items, such as extremely rewarding events, are more likely to be remembered than others and therefore more likely to influence our decisions. How might memory for particular events influence decision-making? Imagine that you are on holiday and you go to buy milk. You can either turn left and walk 3 minutes to the newsagent or turn right and walk 3 minutes to the supermarket. Let's assume that the last four times you have been to a newsagent you paid the following for milk [£1.50, £0.95, 1.40, £1] and at the supermarket you paid [£1.23, £1.26, £1.25, £1.22]. So, on average you paid the same at both shops. To decide which way to turn, you might sample a few experiences from memory. Which items do you sample and how do you then compare these items? You may think of the time you found a bargain and paid £0.95 and happily turn right. However, you may just as easily end up over paying so you would do well to think of the time you paid £1.50. What you decide depends on the processes which have yet to be examined in the same context: 1) which events you originally encoded; 2) how many experiences you sample from your memory and their "value"; and 3) how you compare the items in your sample. Research has indicated that people are more likely to rely on extreme information when making decisions and this can increase risk-seeking behaviours. The precise memory mechanism underlying this phenomenon are not yet understood. This project investigates how our memory for rewarding events, including extreme events, contributes to decision-making and risky choices. The proposed research will address this question using a suite of theory driven experiments supported by computational models. In a series of experiments, we will assess how healthy individuals encode, store and retrieve rewards in memory and use these memories to make decisions. We will develop computer models to understand how memory guides risky-choice. The project will increase our understanding of the role of memory in risky decision-making and help us to identify novel approaches for therapeutic intervention. Many of people's everyday decisions and choices relating to health-related lifestyle, financial savings, purchasing behaviours and environmental choices are heavily influenced by memory for past experiences. This research will support the development of better, more effective choice architecture interventions. If we can develop a better understanding of how people retrieve information from memory, and how that retrieved information supports choice, we will be able to develop interventions that prompt or nudge memory to improve choice.