Contemporary Long-Term Homicide Trends in England and Wales in the Period 1977-2019 and a Comparison with Non-Lethal Violence Trends

杀人无疑是最严重的暴力形式，造成大量和广泛的社会、金融和经济损害。它不仅造成生命的物质损失，而且给幸存的家人和朋友、犯罪发生的社区和社区以及更广泛的社会带来问题。21世纪初至2014年间，英格兰和威尔士最严重的暴力形式凶杀案有所下降，之后凶杀率再次上升。对凶杀案趋势的驱动因素还有很多工作要做；这对全球社会来说是一个巨大的挑战，特别是在英格兰和威尔士，这两个国家的研究仍处于初级阶段。该项目旨在研究和更好地了解英格兰和威尔士40年来(1977-2019年)凶杀率上升和下降的模式。为此，我们将特别注意以下个人和总体特征，包括：(1)凶杀案受害者/罪犯的人口特征(如年龄、性别和社会背景)；(2)凶杀事件的环境特征(如地点、武器使用、酗酒)；(3)与生活方式/日常活动有关的(总体特征)特征；(4)更广泛的社会经济条件、文化价值观；以及(V)公众对凶杀案趋势的看法和社会态度在回应凶杀案趋势方面所扮演的角色。我们尤其会(A)把不同类型的凶杀案分类和比较，以便根据罪犯与受害人的关系和凶杀案的动机/情况，采用更全面的分类方法，仔细研究和更深入了解凶杀案趋势的变化；和(B)通过解剖暴力亚型，将致命暴力趋势与非致命暴力趋势进行比较，以便更准确地检查暴力犯罪的变化，并评估英格兰和威尔士致命和非致命暴力模式的异同。调查这些因素在推动凶杀案随时间推移的趋势中所起的作用，对于推进我们在这一领域的理论和经验知识至关重要，使有指导的政策努力能够进一步帮助减少凶杀案，并潜在地帮助缓解进一步的犯罪高峰。为了实现该项目的目标，我们将利用高度可靠、强大的大规模数据集，包括凶杀案指数(HI，1977-2019)，英国犯罪调查/英格兰和威尔士犯罪调查(BCS/CSEW，1981-2019年)和英国社会态度调查(BSA，1983-2019年)。来自HI的数据将使我们能够广泛探索凶杀案趋势的长期模式，并进一步细化凶杀案不同亚型的分类；另外两个来源将使我们能够在具有代表性的人口样本中将生活方式/日常活动、公众看法/态度和社会经济因素的变量联系起来。为了分析数据，将使用多变量趋势分析来确定推动凶杀案趋势变化的重要影响因素。最后，将编写一份报告，并将在同行评议的国际期刊上发表四篇文章。该项目将由经验丰富的研究人员组成的跨学科小组进行，他们具有：(A)犯罪学、社会学、社会政策和经济学的背景，(B)对杀人、暴力和一般犯罪的兴趣，以及个人和社会层面的变化进程；(C)在定量研究方法方面的专门知识，特别是在社会统计方面的经验，并与大规模和敏感的数据集合作；以及(D)使用次级数据分析为理论、实践和政策提供信息的大量成功的ESRC项目的跟踪记录。这将确保项目以最高质量标准成功、高效地执行。

Homicide is undoubtedly the most serious form of violence, resulting in substantial and widespread social, financial, and economic harm. Not only does it result in the physical loss of life, but also in problems for surviving families and friends, the neighbourhoods and communities where the crime was committed, and broader society. The most serious form of violence, homicide, declined in England and Wales between the early 2000s and 2014, after which the homicide rate rose again. Much work remains to be done to the drivers of homicide trends; a significant challenge to societies globally, but especially so in England and Wales where research remains in its infancy. This project aims to examine and to better understand the patterns in rising and falling homicide rates in England and Wales over a period of four decades (1977-2019). We will do this by directing special attention to the following individual and aggregate level characteristics, including:(i) the demographic characteristics of victims/offenders involved in homicides (e.g. age, sex, and social background);(ii) the circumstantial characteristics of homicide incidents (e.g. location, weapon use, alcohol use);(iii) the (aggregate-level) characteristics relating to lifestyle patterns/routine activities;(iv) the wider socio-economic conditions, cultural values; and(v) the role played by public perceptions and social attitudes in responding to homicide trends.In particular, we will (a) disaggregate and compare distinct homicide subtypes to scrutinize and better understand changes in homicide trends, using more comprehensive typologies based on offender-victim relationships and the motives/circumstances of the homicide; and (b) compare lethal violence trends with trends in non-lethal violence by dissecting violence subtypes to allow for a more accurate examination of changes in violent crimes, and to assess similarities and differences in patterns of lethal and non-lethal violence in England and Wales.Investigating the role these factors play in facilitating trends in homicide over time is critical for advancing our theoretical and empirical knowledge in this area, enabling guided policy efforts to further help reduce homicide and to potentially help mitigate further spikes.To achieve the project's aims, we will draw on highly reliable, robust, large-scale datasets, including the Homicide Index (HI, 1977-2019), the British Crime Survey/Crime Survey for England and Wales (BCS/CSEW, 1981-2019), and the British Social Attitudes Survey (BSA, 1983-2019). Data from the HI will allow for an extensive exploration of long-term patterns in homicide trends and will enable further refinement of disaggregating different subtypes of homicides; the two other sources will allow us to relate variables on lifestyle/routine activities at aggregate level, public perception/attitudes, and socioeconomic factors in a representative population sample. To analyse the data, multivariate trend analysis will be used to identify significant influencing factors driving changes in homicide trends. Lastly, one report will be produced, and four articles will be published in peer-reviewed international journals.The project will be conducted by an interdisciplinary team of experienced researchers with (a) a background in criminology, sociology, social policy and economics, (b) an interest in homicide, violence and crime in general; and in processes of change, both at the individual level, and the societal level; (c) expertise in quantitative research methods, with particular experience in social statistics, and working with large-scale and sensitive datasets; and (d) a track record of undertaking a multitude of successful ESRC-projects using secondary data analyses to inform theory, practice, and policy. This will ensure that the project is performed successfully and efficiently with the highest quality standard.