Early Prediction of Violence and the Disruptive Behaviour Disorders: Follow-up of the Cardiff Child Development Study

我们在卡迪夫儿童发展研究（CCDS）中的目标是确定具有高度攻击性和与其他儿童相处有严重困难的儿童，同时考虑到生命最初几年攻击性的自然上升和下降。将临床上有意义的行为问题与更普通的不当行为和2岁和3岁奥尔兹特有的自我主张区分开来是极其重要的。超过300个家庭在母亲怀上第一个孩子时加入了这项研究。在怀孕期间，我们采访了母亲和父亲，了解他们的背景，他们的健康状况，以及他们对婴儿的希望和计划。然后，我们在6个月和3岁生日之间观察了婴儿四次，在心理学院的家访（6个月和21个月）和生日派对上，婴儿遇到了来自其他家庭的其他婴儿。我们对生日派对的观察显示，与许多父母的看法相反，婴儿更有可能与彼此分享玩具，而不是试图抓住玩具，并且极不可能攻击其他婴儿。然而，即使在出生后的第一年，也很明显，有些婴儿似乎比其他婴儿更愤怒和更具攻击性;如果他们的家庭经历过困难，如果他们的父母有行为问题的历史，如果他们的母亲在怀孕期间吸烟或抑郁，婴儿更有可能表现出攻击性。他们的攻击性的早期迹象是由母亲，父亲和其他熟悉婴儿的家庭成员报告的。家庭成员的报告与我们在生日聚会上的观察相呼应;例如，父母有行为问题的婴儿更有可能攻击其他婴儿。根据父母和其他家庭成员的报告，婴儿表现出愤怒或攻击性的倾向在一年后仍然很明显。因此，我们相信，我们可能已经确定了那些最难适应学校生活的婴儿，他们可能会出现严重的行为和情绪问题。为了检验这一假设，我们建议在儿童6岁时再次就诊，以完成CCDS。我们将访问这些家庭，并与他们的父母，在许多情况下，与年幼的兄弟姐妹一起观察孩子。我们计划使用各种游戏和虚拟现实任务来衡量孩子们解决问题的能力，控制他们的冲动，并选择非攻击性的解决方案来解决其他人的挑战行为所造成的困境。我们还将使用行之有效的方法来确定是否有任何儿童表现出临床上显著的情绪或行为问题，我们将得到家长的许可，要求教师报告儿童在学校的行为。我们还将测量孩子们的活动和心率，以了解生物因素是否是他们行为和情绪问题的基础。如果我们的假设得到证实-如果我们确实确定了那些已经走上暴力行为道路的婴儿-就有可能确定家庭和学校中帮助儿童控制愤怒的因素，并找到建设性的方法来应对日常挑战。因此，CCDS提供了一个独特的证据体系，可以为帮助问题儿童的预防和干预策略提供信息。

Our aim in the Cardiff Child Development Study (CCDS) has been to identify children who are highly aggressive and have serious difficulties dealing with other children, while taking into account any natural rise and fall in aggressiveness over the first years of life. It is extremely important to distinguish clinically significant behavioural problems from more ordinary forms of misbehaviour and the self-assertion that is characteristic of two-and three-year-olds. Over 300 families joined the study when the mother was pregnant with her first child. During the pregnancy, we interviewed both mother and father about their backgrounds, their health, and their hopes and plans for their babies. We then observed the infants four times between 6 months and the third birthday, during home visits (at 6 and 21 months) and birthday parties at the School of Psychology, where infants met other infants from other families who were participating in the study. Our observations of the birthday parties revealed that, contrary to many parents' beliefs, infants were more likely to share toys with each other than to try to grab toys, and were highly unlikely to strike out at other babies. However, even in the first year of life it was clear that some infants seemed more angry and aggressive than others; infants were more likely to show aggression if their families had experienced hardship, if their parents had a history of behavioural problems, and if their mothers had smoked cigarettes or been depressed during the pregnancy. Their early signs of aggressiveness were reported by mothers, fathers, and other family members who knew the infants well. What the family members reported was echoed by our observations during the birthday parties; for example, infants whose parents had behavioural problems were more likely to strike out at other infants. Infants' tendencies to show anger or be aggressive were still apparent a year later, as reported by parents and other family members. We therefore believe it is possible that we have already identified those infants will have the most difficulties settling into school and who may develop serious behavioural and emoitonal problems. To test this hypothesis, we propose to complete the CCDS by seeing the children again when they are 6 years old. We will visit the families at home and observe the children with their parents and, in many cases, younger siblings. We plan to use a variety of games and virtual reality tasks to measure the children's abilities to solve problems, control their impulses, and choose non-aggressive solutions to the dilemmas created by other people's challenging behaviour. We will also use well-established methods for determining whether any of the children are showing clinically significant emotional or behavioural problems, and we will get parents' permission to ask teachers to report on the children's behaviour at school. We will also measure the children's activity and heart rate to see if biological factors underlie their behavioural and emotional problems. If our hypothesis is confirmed--if we have indeed identified those infants who are already on a pathway to violent behaviour--it may be possible to identify the factors at home and in school that help children control their anger and find constructive ways to deal with everyday challenges. Thus the CCDS provides a unique body of evidence that can inform prevention and intervention strategies to help troubled children.