MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling Renewal

近年来，2003年SARS疫情、H5 N1“禽流感”和2009年H1N1流感大流行突出了新传染病的威胁。为这种可能发生的情况做好准备是全世界公共卫生机构和政府的优先事项。此外，由于科学研究为控制疟疾、艾滋病毒和小儿麻痹症等现有传染病提供了新的办法，因此有必要确定哪些干预措施可能最有效地限制特定环境中特定疾病引起的疾病。计算机模拟疾病在人群中的传播，加上科学上严格的数据分析，已证明是强有力的工具。让我们深入了解疾病是如何传播的，以及如何控制疾病的传播。疫情分析和建模中心对这些科学方法进行研究，并将其应用于令人关切的疾病威胁。该中心的一个主要特色是与公共卫生机构保持紧密联系，例如英国卫生防护局、美国疾病控制及预防中心和世界卫生组织，这些机构负责制订和推行控制传染病的策略。该中心的高级科学家是传染病建模和分析领域的世界领导者。他们在应对真实的流行病（例如疯牛病/vCJD、SARS、H5 N1禽流感和2009年流感大流行）以及对地方病（例如疟疾、艾滋病毒和小儿麻痹症）进行流行病学研究方面具有广泛的经验。他们的工作通过中心与公共卫生组织和政府的许多互动直接影响疾病控制政策。MRC和帝国理工学院提供的资金允许专门投资于与HPA、CDC和WHO以及其他致力于改善发展中国家健康的重要组织（特别是比尔和梅琳达·盖茨基金会）建立密切的合作伙伴关系。与每一个，我们都在大量的研究项目，既有科学兴趣中心的研究人员，并有助于公共卫生决策所需的证据基础。该中心的资金用于支持所有项目的核心技术能力，并支付专门的博士后研究人员的费用，这些研究人员在卫生组织（日内瓦）和疾病预防控制中心（亚特兰大）花费大量时间，与这些机构的工作人员一起开展流行病学研究，并促进与该中心其他工作人员的合作。MRC的资助还促进了中心内部更加注重协作、培训和职业发展-培训下一代定量传染病流行病学家。我们还参与提高公共卫生机构和更广泛的传染病研究界对先进建模方法的认识，因此在帝国理工学院以及日内瓦和伦敦的合作地点举办了许多入门职业短期课程。所有这些应用活动都依赖于中心对不同疾病流行动力学进行的更基础的研究，疾病如何随着时间的推移在遗传上演变，以及分析控制或治疗疾病的新方法。中心的研究人员与世界各地的临床和实验科学家合作开展多学科研究，继续为中心提供资金将使过去4年建立的合作伙伴关系得以维持和加强，并与中国和印度等国的研究人员和卫生机构开展新的合作。它还将资助新的优先研究领域，包括实施中心工作人员开发的分析和建模方法的工作，这些方法作为用户友好的计算机程序，可供世界各地的公共卫生专业人员使用。

The threat from new infectious diseases has been highlighted in recent years by the 2003 SARS epidemic, H5N1 'bird flu' and the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic. Preparing for such eventualities is a priority for public health agencies and governments worldwide. Also, as scientific research delivers new approaches to controlling existing infectious diseases such as malaria, HIV and polio, there is a need to determine what interventions are likely to work best to limit the disease and illness caused by a specific disease in a particular setting.In this context, computer modelling of the spread of diseases in populations coupled with scientifically rigorous data analysis have proven themselves as powerful tools for giving insight into how diseases spread and what can be done to limit that control that spread. The Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling undertakes research on these scientific methods and applies them to disease threats of concern. A key feature of the Centre is the close links it has made with with public health agencies - such as the UK Health Protection Agency, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the US (CDC), and the World Health Organization (WHO) - organisations which have to formulate and implement strategies to control infectious diseases. The senior scientists in the Centre are world-leaders in infectious disease modelling and analysis. They have broad experience in responding to real epidemics (e.g. BSE/vCJD, SARS, H5N1 bird flu and the 2009 flu pandemic), and undertaking epidemiological research on endemic diseases (such as malaria, HIV and polio). Their work directly influences disease control policy through the many interactions the Centre has with public health organisations and governments. The funding provided by MRC and Imperial College have allowed dedicated investment into the development of close collaborative partnerships with HPA, CDC and WHO - as well as with other important organisations who work on improving health in developing countries (notably the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation). With each, we are working on a large number of research projects which have both scientific interest to Centre researchers and are contributing to the evidence base needed for public health decisions. Centre funding supports a core technical capacity available to all projects, and pays for dedicated postdoctoral research staff who spend substantial time at WHO (Geneva) and CDC (Atlanta) undertaking epidemiological research with the staff of those agencies and facilitating collaboration with other Centre staff. MRC funding has also facilitated a greater focus on collaboration, training and career development within the Centre - training the next generation of quantitative infectious disease epidemiologists. We are also involved in increasing knowledge of advanced modelling methods in public health institutions and the wider infectious disease research community, and so have run a number of introductory vocational short courses, both at Imperial College, but also on partner sites in Geneva and London.All of this applied activity depends on the more fundamental research undertaken in the Centre on the epidemic dynamics of different diseases, how diseases evolve genetically over time, and on analysing new approaches to control or treat diseases. Much of this research is multidisciplinary, involving Centre researchers working with leading clinical and experimental scientists around the world.Continued funding for the Centre will allow the collaborative partnerships established in the last 4 years to be sustained and enhanced, and new collaborations with researchers and health agencies in countries such as China and India to be developed. It will also fund new priority research areas, including work to implement the analysis and modelling methods developed by Centre staff as user-friendly computer programs that can be used by public health professionals around the world.