The global burden of Chikungunya virus

蚊媒感染是全世界主要的公共卫生问题之一。基孔肯雅病毒有可能造成慢性使人衰弱的风湿病（如关节疼痛和限制身体活动），从而扩大其主要在热带国家的流行病学和经济影响。尽管它很重要，但在全球范围内对甲肝病毒的实际规模仍然知之甚少。虽然CHIK疫情的全球爆发始于10年前，到目前为止已经蔓延到所有大陆，但一些当地研究表明，实际上疫情可能在几十年前就没有被发现。鉴于此，我们假设每次暴发的规模将主要取决于人群先前接触的水平。基于这一原则，本研究的目的是在使用数学和统计模型的基础上确定CHIK感染的全球负担，并根据其生态适宜性评估以前暴露的概率。然后，就可以在全球一级预测发病率、残疾、死亡率和经济成本方面的实际规模。这项研究的结果不仅将为决策者提供信息，也将为疫苗和其他可能的干预措施的研究人员和潜在资助者提供信息。

Mosquito-borne infections are one of the major public health concerns worldwide. Chikungunya (CHIK) virus has the potential of generating chronic debilitating rheumatologic conditions (such as joint pain and limiting physical activity) which enlarges its epidemiological and economic effects mainly in tropical countries. Despite its importance, the actual magnitude of CHIK virus at a global level remains poorly understood. Although the global explosion of CHIK outbreaks started a decade ago, and by now has reached all continents some local studies have suggested that actually outbreaks have probably passed unrecognised for several decades. Given this, we hypothesize that the size of each outbreak will depend mainly on the levels of previous exposure in the population. Based on this principle, the aim of this research is to identify the global burden of CHIK infection based on the use of mathematical and statistical modelling to assess the probability of previous exposure based on its ecological suitability. Then, the real magnitude in terms of morbidity, disability, mortality and economics costs can be projected at a global level. The results of this research will inform not only policy makers but also researchers and potential funders for vaccines and other possible interventions.