Identifying a package of cost-effective interventions to address non-communicable diseases in Gaza

长期疾病在全世界，包括在发展中国家都在增加，给社会造成巨大的经济和健康负担。虽然有预防和控制长期疾病的已知政策和干预措施，但这些政策和干预措施可能不适用于加沙等长期武装冲突的环境。因此，重要的是要了解在这些情况下，哪些政策可以最好地发挥作用，以尽量减少长期疾病对社会造成的危害。这项研究将涉及对加沙人口进行家庭调查，以了解长期疾病的类型（如糖尿病，心脏病）以及其风险因素（如吸烟，不健康的饮食）。这项家庭调查的数据将为一个统计模型提供信息，该模型将预测长期疾病及其风险因素将如何随着时间的推移而变化，这取决于政府和其他机构在加沙实施的政策。这一建模部分将测试围困、封锁、武装冲突以及限制耕作和进口等不同条件下的不同情景，并将力求确定最适合加沙居民的一套物有所值和可行的干预措施。

Long term diseases are increasing worldwide, including in developing countries, resulting in a huge economic and health burden to society. While there are known policies and interventions to prevent and control long term diseases, these may not be applicable in settings exposed to prolonged armed conflict, such as Gaza. It is therefore important to understand which policies could best work in these situations to minimise the harm long term diseases cause to societies.This research will involve conducting a household survey of the population in Gaza in order to understand the types of long term diseases experienced (e.g. diabetes, heart disease) as well as their risk factors (e.g. smoking, unhealthy diet). The data from this household survey will inform a statistical model, which will predict how long term diseases and their risk factors will change over time depending on the policies that governments and other agencies implement in Gaza. This modelling component will test different scenarios under different conditions, such as siege, blockage, armed conflict, and restrictions to farming and imports, and will aim to identify set of value for money and feasible interventions best suited to the population of Gaza.