RAPID-RAPIT

欧洲西北部的气候相对温和，部分原因是由于大西洋的翻转将热量向北拉。有一种风险是，全球变暖将导致这种环流迅速减少，其后果不仅包括欧洲的冬季变冷，还包括海平面和降水的变化。该项目将对大西洋翻转的快速变化进行风险评估。我们将使用两种气候系统模式：HADCM3 （IPCC AR4中使用的哈德利中心模式）和CHIME（南安普顿国家海洋学中心开发的全球气候模式）。它与HADCM3具有相同的大气模式，但与海洋成分具有非常不同的结构。利用climateprediction.net的资源，我们将运行两种模式的大集合来评估系统中的不确定性。然后，我们将使用现代贝叶斯统计技术将模型输出、数据和专家意见结合起来进行风险评估。评估RAPID-WATCH阵列数据的效用是该项目的一个重要目标。

North west Europe has a relatively mild climate in part because of heat pulled north through the Atlantic by the overturning. There is a risk that global warming will cause this circulation to rapidly decrease with consequences involving not only colder winters for Europe but also changes in sea level and precipitation. This project will carry out a risk assessment of rapid changes of the Atlantic overturning. We will use two models of the climate system, HADCM3, the Hadley Centre model used in the IPCC AR4, and CHIME, a global climate model developed at the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton. This has the same atmospheric model as HADCM3 but has a very different structure to the ocean component. Making use of the resources of climateprediction.net we will run a large ensemble of both models to assess the uncertainties in the system. We will then use modern Bayesian statistical techniques to combine model output, data and expert opinion in our risk assessment. An assessment of the utility of the data from the RAPID-WATCH arrays is an important aim of the project.