HydrOlogical cYcle Understanding vIa Process-bAsed GlObal Detection, Attribution and prediction (Horyuji PAGODA)

该方案将侧重于大气、陆地和海洋水循环变化的全球层面。总体目标是通过基于进程的探测、归因和预测，提高对全球到区域范围内不断变化的水循环预测的信心。科学范围优先考虑AO中的主题2，1，3，4，重点关注气候过程，以扩展我们对区域尺度水源/汇不确定性原因的理解，这是GCM显示降水，蒸发和其他水相关变量预测变化的巨大变化。这种模式的不确定性与大规模环流模式和地面反馈过程的变化密切相关，这些变化在模式之间有所不同。此外，即使在模型相互一致的地方（例如，与风暴路径和陆地表面过程有关的欧洲冬季更潮湿、夏季更干燥的趋势），也不能想当然地认为与真实的世界一致。模型和观测之间的定量比较的重要性怎么强调都不过分：有机会也迫切需要进行研究，以了解从全球到微观的空间尺度上驱动水循环变化的过程，并确定明显的差异是否归因于观测的不确定性、强迫规格的错误或模型的局限性。PAGODA将通过将模型与观测结果进行对比并协调观测结果来实现其科学目标，这些观测结果具有内在的不确定性和异质性，具有强大的物理机制链-综合利用模型分析和实验。检测和归因始终以迭代的方式应用，以一致地合并来自观察和模型的理解，以隔离过程并确定因果关系。PAGODA的目的是专门侧重于控制全球到区域尺度的水循环变化的过程，特别是十年时间尺度（人为气候变化的时间尺度）。它涉及大气、陆地和海洋中的过程，汇集了气候观测、气候模型以及探测和归因方面的专家。它力求利用重要的新机会促进研究进展，包括新的观测数据集（如海洋盐度再分析、热带海洋测量和遥感监测系统卫星产品、长期降水记录）、新的模型（HadGEM 3和高分辨率模拟的新能力）和新的CMIP 5模型相互比较，并开发新的方法，用于基于过程的探测、归因和预测。

PAGODA will focus on the global dimensions of changes in the water cycle in the atmosphere, land, and oceans. The overarching aim is to increase confidence in projections of the changing water cycle on global-to-regional scales through a process-based detection, attribution and prediction. The scientific scope prioritises themes 2,1,3,4 in the AO, adopting a focus on climate processes to extend our understanding of the causes of water source/sink uncertainty at the regional scale, which is where GCMs show huge variations concerning projected changes in precipitation, evaporation, and other water related variables. This model uncertainty is closely linked to shifts in large-scale circulation patterns and surface feedback processes, which differ between models. Furthermore, even where models agree with each other (for example, the suggested trend towards wetter winters and drier summers in Europe, connected to storm tracks and land surface processes), consistency with the real world cannot be taken for granted. The importance of quantitative comparisons between models and observations cannot be overstated: there is opportunity and urgent need for research to understand the processes that are driving changes in the water cycle, on spatial scales that range from global to microscopic, and to establish whether apparent discrepancies are attributable to observational uncertainties, to errors in the specification of forcings, or to model limitations. PAGODA will achieve its scientific objectives by confronting models with observations and reconciling observations, which possess inherent uncertainty and heterogeneity, with robust chains of physical mechanisms - employing model analysis and experiments in an integral way. Detection and attribution is applied throughout, in an iterative fashion, to merge the understanding from observations and models consistently, in order to isolate processes and identify causality. PAGODA is designed to focus specifically on the processes that govern global-to-regional scale changes in the water cycle, particularly on decadal timescales (the timescale of anthropogenic climate change). It addresses processes in the atmosphere, land and oceans, and brings together experts in climate observations, climate models, and detection and attribution. It seeks to exploit important new opportunities for research progress, including new observational data sets (e.g. ocean salinity reanalysis, TRMM and SSMIS satellite products, long precipitation records), new models (HadGEM3 & new capabilities for high resolution simulations), and the new CMIP5 model inter-comparison and to develop new methodologies for process-based detection, attribution and prediction.