IMPROVING REPRESENTATION OF WILDFIRE SMOKE TRANSPORT AND EFFECTS IN A KEY OPERATIONAL ATMOSPHERIC MONITORING & FORECASTING SCHEME

生物质燃烧（BB）和野火向大气中释放大量微粒和微量气体，其数量在空间和时间上变化很大。羽流上升意味着在一定条件下，这些排放物可以在地球表面以上的高度注入大气，增强它们的远程传输，改变它们的大气化学、辐射收支和空气质量影响。过去项目的结果表明，英国的空气质量会受到来自欧洲和俄罗斯荒野的烟雾的远程传输的显著影响，加拿大火灾产生的烟雾可以在DEFRA监测站的空气样本中检测到，例如梅斯黑德。近实时（NRT）大气建模和预报方案旨在真实地代表地球系统的这些方面，必须包括一个高时间分辨率、非回顾性的BB排放信息来源——通常来自卫星地球观测数据。然而，如上所述，火灾的烟羽浮力特性可以强烈地影响其对大气的影响，并且在模拟野火烟雾排放的长期影响时，越来越多地认识到这是一个重要的术语。然而，由于缺乏先验信息，而且直到最近才有直接相关的观测结果，这意味着烟羽喷射高度的参数化受到的关注远远少于估计烟雾排放的幅度和变异性。该KE项目将利用NERC两个成功的研究项目的发现，对GMES英国/欧洲大气监测和预报原型方案（“GMES大气核心服务”）中目前（特别）野火烟羽喷射高度的规定进行重大改进，该方案基于英国ECMWF世界领先的综合预报系统（IFS），旨在为公众提供：政策制定者和下游组织可以获得最先进的大气化学监测和预测数据。GACS服务于广泛的用户群体，例如那些参与环境政策制定和维持治安的人，那些提供与卫生界有关的下游服务的人（在空气污染发作期间警告哮喘发病率增加），以及那些旨在减少公众接触空气污染的人。我们将与开发GACS的项目伙伴合作，利用NE/E016863/1中对烟羽高度上升的研究和NE/H00419X/1中开发的EO数据处理程序，在GACS系统中提供更真实的喷烟高度表示；一个同时考虑了火和大气特性的模型，这样可以更好地代表这些排放物的大气输送，包括输送到英国的情况。项目的合作伙伴是ECMWF和j<s:1>利希研究中心，前者领导GACS在英国的发展，并运营全球模型，烟羽上升计划将嵌入其中；后者是烟雾排放化学和运输方面的专家，也是GACS发展的主要合作伙伴。KCL环境研究小组（KCL- erg）是全球大气模型输出的“下游”用户，由英国政府资助，提供区域空气质量监测和建模，而这个KE项目将支持他们开始在他们的英国区域和伦敦范围的空气质量建模计划中使用增强的GACS输出，特别是更好地考虑已知从东欧或俄罗斯西部进入英国的烟雾污染空气。目前导致空气质量模型和测量结果之间的差异越来越大（见DEFRA的支持信）。所有包含新方案的模型输出将通过GMES GACS系统接口http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu/免费提供，英国地区通过在线公共接口www.londonair.org.uk/免费提供

Biomass burning (BB) and wildfires release huge quantities of particulates and trace gases into the atmosphere in amounts highly variable in space and time. Plume rise means these that under certain conditions these emissions can be injected into the atmosphere at heights far above the Earth surface, enhancing their long-range transport and altering their atmospheric chemistry, radiative budget, and air quality effects. Results from past project show that UK air quality can be signficantly affected by long-range transport of smoke from European and Russian wildires, and smoke from fires in Canada can be detected in air samples at DEFRA monitoring stations in e.g. Mace Head. Near real-time (NRT) atmospheric modelling and forecasting schemes aiming to realistically represent these aspects of the Earth system must include a high temporal resolution, non-retrospective source of BB emissions information - which generally comes from satellite Earth Obervation data. However, as discussed above, a fires smoke plumes buoyancy characteristics can strongly influence its atmospheric impact, and this is increasingly realised to be an important term to represent when modelling the long-range effects of wildfire smoke emissions. However, a lack of a priori information and, until recently, a directly-related EO observable, has meant that parameterisation of smoke plume injection height has received far less attention than has estimating the magnitude and variability of the smoke emissions.This KE Project will exploit the findings from two successful NERC research projects to provide major improvements to the current (ad hoc) prescription of wildfire smoke plume injection height in the prototype GMES UK/European atmospheric monitoring and forecasting scheme (the 'GMES Atmospheric Core Service', which is based on the world-leading integrated forecast system (IFS) of ECMWF in the UK and which is being desiged to provide the public, policy makers and downstream organisations with access to state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry monitoring and forecasting data. The GACS serves a broad community of users, for example those involved in environmental policy development and policing, those delivering downstream services related to the health community (warning of increased asthma incidence during air pollution episodes), and those aiming to reduce public exposure to air pollution. We will work with Project Partners developing the GACS to exploit the research on plume height rise developed in NE/E016863/1 and the EO data processing procedures developed in NE/H00419X/1 to provide a much more realistic representation of smoke injection height in the GACS system; one that takes account of both fire and atmospheric characteristics such that the atmospheric transport of these emissions, including to the UK, can be better represented. The Project Partners are ECMWF, who lead GACS development in the UK and who operate the global model within which the plume rise scheme will be embedded, and Jülich Research Centre who are experts in the chemistry and transport of smoke emissions and who are a main partner in the GACS development. The KCL Environmental Research Group (KCL-ERG) are a 'down-stream' user of global atmospheric model output, funded by UK Government to provide regional air quality (AQ) monitoring and modelling, and this KE project will support them in starting to use the enhanced GACS outputs in their UK regional and London-wide AQ modelling schemes, in particular to take better take account of smoke-polluted air that is known to move into the UK from e.g. eastern Europe or western Russia, and which at present causes enhanced discrepancies between the AQ models and measurements (see DEFRA letter of support). All model outputs incorporating the new scheme will be made available freely through the GMES GACS system interface http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu/ and for the UK region throught the online public interface www.londonair.org.uk/