Scenarios for the development of smart grids in the UK

智能电网（SG）提供了明确的潜力，通过改变我们生产，交付和消费能源的方式，以及潜在的我们对这些服务的概念，为英国向低碳经济，能源安全和可负担性过渡的政策目标做出贡献。到目前为止，几乎没有深入研究哪些因素可能影响这种潜力，从今天到2050年这样的电网如何发展，以及谁可能是这个过程中的赢家和输家。考虑到情景在组织经济、技术、竞争、政治和社会信息并将其转化为决策框架方面的优势，它们非常适合分析和通报SG发展。现有的设想方案强调了能源和相关部门内变革的社会、经济、政策和技术驱动因素;然而，迄今为止，很少有工作审查不同行为者的作用和优先事项，空间变化（例如，城市/农村、现有能源基础设施）或行为问题。该项目的一个重大创新是将这些重要方面纳入具体的可持续发展情景，并纳入利益攸关方对与可持续发展发展相关的不确定性和关键指标的评估。这个复杂的社会技术课题需要一个多学科的团队和定性和定量方法的创新组合。因此，我们的团队将社会，政策和工程科学的专业知识与SG分析，利益相关者参与和情景开发技术的关键技能相结合。在两个相互关联的工作包中，我们将：1）确定可能在上游层面决定SG未来形态的关键步骤，以及影响最终用户层面技术吸收的社会经济，行为，技术和环境因素。这些将通过以下方式确定：对英国和国际文献的系统性审查; SG示范项目的案例研究分析（包括与关键参与者的访谈）;初步情景大纲的制定;以及政策德尔菲研究，以确定和评估关键情景维度和指标。2)制定一系列SG情景（定量建模和定性叙述），随后通过专家和公众研讨会评估和完善这些情景。这将涉及回溯和预测的内容。我们的迭代情景开发过程包括：设计情景大纲（对2050年终点的广泛描述）和从现在到2050年的路径;创建叙述并对路径进行时空建模;通过利益相关者的参与来完善情景。这一过程的基础是我们关注i）每个情景中的关键过渡点，ii）英国能源系统中的空间差异。而不是假设一个同质的英国能源系统，我们将考虑到人口，能源服务需求和用户的能源系统的参与的差异。我们认为，任何未能认识到这些空间差异和偶然性的情景对决策者的价值都是有限的。在整个项目期间，我们将在三个层面与利益攸关方接触：a）项目咨询小组（包括学术界、公用事业和其他企业代表、政策制定者和非政府组织），B）更广泛的专家（在专家研讨会和政策德尔菲调查中）和c）公共研讨会。这种与公众的早期接触对于了解社会对开创性和潜在争议性技术的接受程度至关重要，因为SG系统的复杂性要求将不同参与者的交互内置到场景开发中，而不仅仅是验证过程的一部分。通过考虑特定的系统参与者、他们的动机、代理以及他们之间的网络，我们的目标是为我们的场景增加战略价值。

Smart Grids (SGs) offer clear potential to contribute to UK policy goals of a transition to a low-carbon economy, energy security and affordability by transforming the ways we produce, deliver and consume energy, and potentially our conception of these services. As yet, there is little in-depth research into what factors might influence this potential, how such a grid can develop from today to 2050 and who might be the winners and losers in this process. Given the strength of scenarios for organising economic, technological, competitive, political, and societal information and translating it into a framework for decision-making, they are well suited for analysing and informing SG development. Existing scenarios highlight social, economic, policy, and technological drivers of change within energy and related sectors; however little work to date has examined the roles and priorities of different actors, spatial variation (e.g., urban/rural, existing energy infrastructure) or behavioural issues. A significant innovation of this project will be to incorporate these important dimensions into specific SG scenarios, and to include stakeholders' assessments of the uncertainties and key indicators associated with SG development. This complex, socio-technical topic demands a multidisciplinary team and an innovative combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. Accordingly, our team combines expertise from across social, policy and engineering sciences with critical skills in SG analysis, stakeholder engagement, and scenario development techniques. In two interrelated work packages, we will:1) Identify key steps likely to determine the future shape of SG at the upstream level, together with socio-economic, behavioural, technological and environmental factors influencing the uptake of technologies at the end user level. These will be identified via: systematic review of UK and international literatures; case study analysis of SG demonstration projects (including interviews with key actors); development of initial scenario outlines; and Policy Delphi study to identify and evaluate key scenario dimensions and indicators. 2) Develop a range of SG scenarios (both quantitatively modelled and qualitatively narrated), and subsequently evaluate and refine these through expert and public workshops. This will involve elements of backcasting and forecasting. Our iterative scenario development process involves: devising scenario outlines (broad descriptions of 2050 end point) and pathways between now and 2050; creating narratives and conducting spatial-temporal modelling of pathways; and refining scenarios through stakeholder engagement. The process is underpinned by our attention to i) critical transition points within each scenario, and ii) spatial differences within the UK energy system. Rather than assuming a homogeneous UK energy system, we will take into account differences in demographics, energy service demands, and users' engagement with the energy system. We believe that any scenario failing to recognise these spatial differences and contingencies will have limited value to decision makers. We will engage with stakeholders at three levels throughout the project: a) the project advisory group (including academic, utility and other business representatives, policymakers and NGOs), b) wider experts (in expert workshops and a Policy Delphi survey) and c) public workshops. This early engagement with the public is vital to understand societal acceptance of path-breaking and potentially controversial technologies as the complexity of SG systems demands that the interaction of different actors be endogenously built into the scenario development, rather than merely part of a validation process. By taking into account specific system actors, their motivations, agency and the networks between them, we aim to add strategic value to our scenarios.