Global modelling of local biodiversity responses to human impacts

生物多样性正在下降。尽管《生物多样性公约》（CBD）缔约方承诺到2010年减少生物多样性的丧失速度，但所有证据都表明，生物多样性正在以稳定甚至加速的速度下降，而且这种下降背后的压力正在变得更糟。这是一个坏消息，因为每个国家的每个人都依赖生态系统服务——生态系统为人们提供的利益——以及支撑这种服务的生物多样性。这些联系对于世界上最贫穷国家的数亿人来说是最直接的，他们依靠当地的生物多样性获得食物、纤维、药品和燃料。随着2010年目标的最后期限的到来，科学家用来评估趋势的生物多样性指标出现了明显的问题。由于2010年的目标需要迅速评估，现有的指标是围绕研究人员已经整理好的数据集设计的。这导致了偏见，因为我们对有魅力的脊椎动物的了解多于对昆虫的了解，对温带生物多样性的了解多于对热带生物多样性的了解，对单一物种种群的了解多于对它们所属的生态群落的了解。这种匆忙还意味着，一些指标可能不够严格，不足以支持政策决定——这是一个真正令人担忧的问题，因为任何人为导致气候变化的证据中的明显弱点都被大声批评的人抓住了把柄。有必要制定科学上严格的指标，以反映对生物多样性的威胁、生物多样性状况、生态系统服务和政策对策。生物多样性面临的主要威胁（通常被称为驱动因素或压力）是栖息地的破坏、退化和破碎化，以及由于开发、污染和从世界其他地区引入物种而对个体健康造成的损害。我们知道，受威胁的哺乳动物、鸟类和两栖动物的比例最高的地区，是最近人类压力变得强烈的地区。我们还知道，一些物种和生态系统的特性使它们比其他物种和生态系统更能在人类活动的影响下生存下去。因此，研究的当务之急是建立生物多样性状态如何不仅受到威胁强度的影响，而且受到生态特征的影响的模型。这样的模型将使我们了解衰退的复杂空间、时间、分类和生态模式。我们还将能够利用这些模型做出预测，为政策提供信息和支持。该提案是世界一流大学（伦敦帝国理工学院）、政府间保护组织（UNEP-WCMC）、领先的生物多样性研究所（动物研究所）和世界领先的技术公司（微软研究院）之间的真正合作伙伴关系，它们的共同目标是整合生物多样性和人类威胁的现有数据，以产生最佳的政策基础。我们还将利用我们开发的框架来解决生物多样性科学中广泛的基础问题和政策相关问题。UNEP-WCMC将利用该框架进行生物多样性预测，以响应包括国际公约、政府和企业在内的决策者的要求。我们将遵守新成立的生物多样性和生态系统服务政府间科学政策平台（IPBES）制定的指导方针，以确保该框架符合目的。由于该框架是作为项目伙伴之间的真正伙伴关系而制定的，因此它将直接转化为对生物多样性管理政策选择的评价。

Biodiversity is declining. Despite the commitment made by the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) to reduce the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010, all the evidence shows that biodiversity is declining at steady or even accelerating rates, and that the pressures behind the decline are if anything getting worse. This is bad news, because every person in every country depends on ecosystem services - benefits that ecological systems provide to people - and the biodiversity that underpins it. These links are most direct for the hundreds of millions of people in the world's poorest countries who depend on local biodiversity for food, fibres, medicines and fuel.As the deadline for the 2010 target came and went, problems became apparent with the biodiversity indicators scientists have used to assess trends. Because the 2010 target needed to be assessed quickly, existing indicators were designed around sets of data that researchers had already collated together. This led to biases because we know more about charismatic vertebrates than about insects, more about temperate than tropical biodiversity, and more about populations of single species than about the ecological communities of which they are parts. The rush also meant that some indicators might not be rigorous enough to support policy decisions - a real concern, given how any apparent weakness in the evidence for human-caused climate change is leapt on by vociferous critics. There is a need for scientifically rigorous indicators that reflect threats to biodiversity, the state of biodiversity, ecosystem services and policy responses.The main threats facing biodiversity (often termed drivers or pressures) are the destruction, degradation and fragmentation of habitats, and the damage to individuals' fitness caused by exploitation, pollution and introduction of species from other parts of the world. We know that the highest proportions of threatened mammals, birds and amphibians are found in those regions where human pressures have recently become intense. We also know that some species and ecosystems have characteristics that make them better able than others to persist in spite of human actions. An urgent priority for research, therefore, is to model how the state of biodiversity is affected not only by threat intensities but also by ecological characteristics. Such a model will let us understand the complex spatial, temporal, taxonomic and ecological patterns of decline. We will also be able to use those models to make projections that can inform and support policy.This proposal is a true partnership between a world-class university (Imperial College London), an intergovernmental conservation organisation (UNEP-WCMC), a leading biodiversity research institute (Institute of Zoology) and a world-leading technology company (Microsoft Research), sharing the aim of integrating existing data on biodiversity and human threats to produce the best possible basis for policy. We will also use the framework we develop to tackle a wide range of both fundamental and policy-relevant questions in biodiversity science.UNEP-WCMC will use the framework for biodiversity projections in response to requests from decision-makers, including the international conventions, governments and businesses. We will meet guidelines laid down by the nascent Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) to ensure the framework is fit for purpose. Because the framework is being developed as a true partnership between project partners, it will translate directly into evaluations of policy options for biodiversity management.