Southern Africa's hydro-economy and water security (SAHEWS)

南部非洲的水安全概括了全球对水的压力：人口快速增长、长期和干旱引起的粮食短缺、日益严重的水资源短缺和能源安全问题，同时需求不断增长、跨界和区域分配问题，以及未来可能变得更加干燥和更加多变的强烈多变的气候。政治、体制和经济因素加剧了这些挑战，包括有限的管理和监管能力，以及获得可靠饮用水的极不公平。本研究旨在提高对中短期水文气象变率的驱动因素及其社会经济后果的理解，并制定改善该地区水资源管理的方法。拟议的合作解决了有效管理水安全方面的重要知识空白。水文气象变率很大，空间上也很广泛，因此，长期的洪涝和干旱会造成宏观的社会经济影响，但人们对这些影响知之甚少。季节性预报显示，与许多其他区域相比，南部非洲的预报技巧更高，但可靠性和技巧仍然是重要的制约因素。该项目将评估和完善水管理的季节预报，模拟水文气象变率的社会经济后果，开发知识转移技术，如信息差距决策理论，以支持高度不确定性条件下的水管理。一个共同设计过程将涉及两个案例研究，以制定与决策有关的指标，并将通过与战略决策者举行的区域讲习班进行高层传播和推广。

Water security in southern Africa encapsulates global pressures on water: rapid population growth, chronic and drought-induced food shortages, growing water scarcity and energy security problems coincident with rising demand, transboundary and regional allocation issues, and a strongly variable climate that will likely become drier and more variable in the future. These challenges are exacerbated by political, institutional and economic factors, including limited management and regulatory capacity, and highly inequitable access to reliable potable water. This research seeks to improve understanding of the drivers of short to medium term hydro-meteorological variability, its socioeconomic consequences and develop approaches for improved water resources management in the region.The proposed collaboration addresses important knowledge gaps in the effective management of water security. Hydro-meteorological variability is large and spatially extensive such that prolonged floods and droughts cause macroscale socioeconomic impacts yet these are poorly understood. Seasonal forecasts show greater skill for southern Africa relative to many other regions but reliability and skill remain important constraints. This project will assess and refine seasonal forecasts for water management, model the socioeconomic consequences of hydro-meteorological variability and develop knowledge transfer techniques, such as Info-Gap Decision Theory for supporting water management under conditions of high uncertainty. A co-design process will engage with two case studies to develop decision-relevant indicators, and high level dissemination and up-scaling will occur through regional workshops with strategic decision-makers.