Drought Impacts: Vulnerability thresholds in monitoring and Early-warning Research

干旱事件对几乎每个气候区和每个用水部门的水安全构成威胁。虽然短期内几乎无法预防旱灾，但可以采取行动减少社会对旱灾的脆弱性，包括发展旱灾监测和预警系统。很少有人试图评估广泛使用的实物指标在以反映相互关联的人类和环境原因、后果和影响的复杂性的方式反映干旱严重程度方面的相关性，而且这种影响没有充分纳入现有的抗旱监测和预警系统。该项目力求通过改进自然(水文气象)干旱特征与环境和社会经济影响之间的概念和方法联系来填补这一空白，以便为加强干旱监测和预警系统及其他风险管理战略的发展提供信息。一种创新的方法方法将结合使用水文气象和社会经济数据，包括影响报告，以及旨在纳入利益攸关方关于干旱的观点和经验的社会学习方法。该小组将使用通常纳入监测系统的现有干旱指数数据集，但也将使用关于干旱影响的广泛但未得到充分利用的数据库(美国干旱报告程序、欧盟项目干旱R&SPI数据库)。在与水供应商和其他利益攸关方的一系列研讨会中，将在战略游戏中探索M&EW系统的适用性，结果将反馈到分析和设计中。这一方法将支持为公共供水案例研究部门制定有针对性的监测和环境保护的新方法。一些伙伴直接参与业务干旱监测，并在不同先决条件下对潜力和机会进行有力评估，将保证该项目的影响，从而有助于朝着制定新做法的目标迈进，使社区能够建设抗旱能力。

Drought events pose a threat to water security in virtually every climate zone and to every water use sector. Although little can be done in the short term to prevent a drought, actions can be taken to reduce the vulnerability of society to the event, including the development of drought monitoring and early warning (M&EW) systems. There have been few attempts to assess how relevant widely-used physical indicators are for capturing drought severity in a way that reflects the complexity of inter-related human and environmental causes, effects and impacts, and such impacts have not been adequately incorporated into existing drought M&EW systems. This project seeks to fill this gap by improving the conceptual and methodological link between natural (hydrometeorological) drought characterisation and environmental and socio-economic impacts, in order to inform the development of enhanced drought M&EW systems and other risk management strategies. An innovative methodological approach will combine the use of hydro-meteorological and socio-economic data, including impact reports, alongside social learning approaches designed to incorporate stakeholders' views and experiences of drought. The team will use existing datasets of drought indices typically incorporated in monitoring systems, but also extensive, yet under-utilized, databases on drought impacts (US Drought Reporter, EU project DROUGHT R&SPI database). In a series of workshops with water suppliers and other stakeholders, the applicability of M&EW systems will be explored in strategy games and the results will feed back into analysis and design. This approach will support the iterative development of novel approaches for targeted M&EW for the case study sector of public water supply. The direct involvement of some partners in operational drought monitoring and robust assessment of the potentials and opportunities under different prerequisites will guarantee the project's impact and thus help move towards the goal of developing new practices enabling communities to build capacity for resilience to drought.