Resolving Climate Impacts on shelf and CoastaL sea Ecosystems (ReCICLE)

大陆架和沿海海洋通过其在吸收和储存大气二氧化碳方面的作用，为社会提供重要的服务，特别是鱼类的食物和气候调节。这些海域的生态系统容易受到温室气体排放引起的全球气候变化的影响。因此，能够对气候变化对这些地区的影响提供可靠的未来预测，对于我们了解这些服务可能受到的影响至关重要。拟议工作的总体目的是确定和量化构成大陆架海洋生态系统食物链基础的简单植物生命(浮游植物)未来对气候变化的潜在反应，并评估这种反应的可能范围。为了实现这一点，我们使用了最先进的水动力-生态系统耦合模型，分辨率非常高。这是由全球气候模型的输出推动的，这些模型连同生态系统模型结构的各个方面被选择，以便跨越系统对气候变化的潜在反应，并提供对未来的一系列看法。然后使用统计方法从时间序列和相似属性区域(生物地理)的变化来描述这种响应，气候信号可以被检测到的清晰程度以及该信号如何通过食物网传播。我们集中在西北欧大陆架生态系统响应的五个关键指标(称为中间服务)：初级生产(植物生长)、氧气吸收、养分运输、吸收和再循环、生物控制(能量和物质如何在食物网的不同水平之间转移)以及水柱的栖息地。气候变化(通过大气、公海和陆地强迫的变化)对物理化学过程的影响将以不同方式影响这些关键指标。例如：海洋混合的变化改变了大陆架海洋营养物质的分布，风的混合和光照水平的变化改变了春季浮游植物大量繁殖的时间和大小，海水温度的变化直接影响了生长速度。在初级生产力最高的海洋区域，活跃的物理过程的尺度通常比许多模式系统所能容纳的要小，例如陡峭和多变的地形产生的额外混合，富含营养物质和沉积物的河水羽流，以及混合良好和季节性分层的水域之间的锋面。气候变化对FineScale过程的潜在影响在很大程度上是未知的，但可能会从根本上改变我们对气候变化对这些海域整体影响的看法。除了物理学的细节，生态系统的复杂性也必须被考虑在内。在食物链的底部有几个反馈，它们控制着化学能如何在系统中循环。如果这个循环的不同元素，例如浮游动物的觅食和细菌的营养循环，以不同的方式对变化做出反应，那么整体影响可能被放大或抑制。为了解决这些问题，我们提出了一个紧密集成的模型实验设计、模拟、评估和分析方案，组织在四个工作包中：实验设计和不确定性、使用观测分析的模型验证、生态系统响应分析、模型产品。总而言之，这将对气候对海洋生态系统的潜在影响产生前所未有的看法，包括精细物理过程、非线性生态系统相互作用的影响，以及对可能影响范围的评估。我们将把这些信息浓缩成一套模型产品，便于其他学科的科学家和更广泛的利益相关者访问。

Shelf and coastal seas provide vital services for society, notably food, from fish, and climate regulation, through their role in drawing down and storing atmospheric CO2. The ecosystems of these seas are vulnerable to global climate change, arising from greenhouse gas emissions. Being able to provide reliable future projections of the impacts of climate change on these regions is therefore vital for our knowledge of how these services may be impacted. The overall purpose of the proposed work is to identify and quantify the potential future response to climate change of the simple plant life (phytoplankton) forming the base of the food chain of the shelf sea ecosystems and to assess the likely range of this response. To deliver this we use a state of the art coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem model at an exceptionally fine resolution. This is driven by the output of global climate models, which along with aspects of the ecosystem model structure, are selected so as to span the potential response of the system to climate change, and provide a range of views of the future. Statistical methods are then used to characterise this response in terms of timeseries and changes in areas of similar properties (the biogeography), how clearly the climate signal can be detected and how this signal propagates through the food web.We focus on five key indicators of ecosystem response on the Northwest European Continental shelf (termed intermediate services): primary production (plant growth), oxygen uptake, nutrient transport, uptake and recycling, biological control (how energy and material is transferred between different levels in the food web), and the habitat of the water column. The impact of climate change (through changes in the atmosphere, open ocean and terrestrial forcing) on the physical and chemical processes will affect these key indicators in different ways. Examples include: modification of the shelf sea nutrient distribution by changes in oceanic mixing, changes to the timing and magnitude of spring phytoplankton blooms due to changes in wind mixing and light levels, and changes to sea water temperature directly affecting growth rates. The physical processes active in the regions of these seas where primary production is highest are generally of finer scale than many model systems can accommodate, examples include extra mixing generated by steep and variable topography, plumes of nutrient and sediment rich river water, and fronts between well mixed and seasonally stratified waters. The potential effects of climate change on the finescale processes is largely unknown, but may radically change our view of the overall impact of climate change in these seas. Alongside the details of the physics, the complexity of the ecosystem must also be accounted for. There a several feedbacks at the base of the food web, which control how chemical energy cycles through the system. If different elements of this cycle, e.g. grazing by zooplankton and nutrient recycling by bacteria, respond to change in different ways then the overall effect may be amplified or suppressed. This amplification or suppression determines how vulnerable the overlying services (e.g. fish production) are to climate change, and hence the potential societal implications.To address these issues we propose a tightly integrated programme of model experiment design, simulation, evaluation and analysis, organised in four work packages: Experiment design and uncertainty, Model validation using observational analysis, Analysis of ecosystem response, Model products. Together this will produce an unprecedented view of potential climate impacts on marine ecosystems, including the effects of fine-scale physical processes, non-linear ecosystem interactions and an assessment of the range of likely impacts. We will condense this information into a set of model products that are readily accessible by scientists of other disciplines and wider stakeholders.