FoRUM - Flood risk: Building Infrastructure Resilience through better Understanding and Management choices

在过去十年中，评估和管理洪水风险的方法取得了重大进展。在此期间，重大研究项目(如FREE、FLOODSITE、FRMRC、iCOASST、RASP)和行业驱动的创新(特别是保险部门、水务公司和环境顾问)都为这些进展做出了贡献。由于这些多重(但在很大程度上是独立的)创新，英国在洪水风险分析和长期基础设施投资规划的科学和实践方面确立了卓越地位。国家洪水风险评估和长期投资战略(由环境署执行)等方案建立在这一知识的基础上，并继续代表着领先的国际做法。特别值得注意的是，LTIS是第一个明确以国家洪水风险分析为基础的国家基础设施投资战略。尽管过去十年在推动创新方面发挥了强大作用，但它也导致了技术的激增，这是可以理解的，而从业者和研究人员很难获得和建立这些技术。许多用户现在对什么是最佳实践以及结果的可信度感到困惑。最近的一些出版物质疑其中一些结果，这是对复杂环境模型的合理挑战。现在正是通过协调一致的知识转移(KT)确认、巩固和传播当前最先进技术的时候，并为企业和学术界之间的未来进步和合作提供平台。这里提出的协调一致的知识转让将对以下方面作出重大贡献：(1)使利益攸关方(包括领先的咨询公司和基础设施供应商)能够利用现有的风险分析能力来确定投资目标，以建立复原力；(2)重振系统风险分析和投资规划领域的共同创新浪潮；(Iii)保持英国在不确定情况下的自然灾害风险分析和决策领域的领先地位，以及(Iv)加强驻英国顾问在国际上的竞争优势。论坛项目：1.转移洪水风险分析的知识和技能-我们将巩固近年来的进展，包括纳入基础设施故障、与风暴条件的空间一致性以及渠道和洪泛区动态之间的相互作用。我们将探索自上而下和自下而上模式之间的关系，以及一种模式的优势与另一种模式的劣势互补的机会。在这样做的过程中，我们将强调公认的局限性和关键的不确定性。2.在未来变化和区域/地方影响的情况下，转让关于投资规划的知识和理解--我们将巩固最近在投资规划方面取得的进展以及在国家和区域各级采取的办法。我们将把通过FRMRC和机构赞助的适应能力项目和长期投资研究等举措开发的技术与荷兰和领先企业(例如兰德、世界银行)发展不足的技术进行比较和对比。我们将帮助利益相关者获取最新的思维和技术，以支持投资规划，并将英国正在采用的方法与更广泛的国际实践相结合。促进更好地了解国家风险评估的可信度--通过使用案例研究，我们将国家(通过国家洪水风险评估)提供的风险评估与在更地方一级(通过最佳做法地方分析)提供的风险评估进行比较和对比。这将使我们能够在不同的尺度上探索分析的可信度，以及用户应该承认的不确定性。

The past decade has seen significant developments in the approaches to assessing and managing flood risk. Throughout this period major research projects (such as the FREE, Floodsite, FRMRC, iCOASST, RASP) and industry driven innovations (particularly within the insurance sector, water companies and environmental consultants) have all contributed to these advances. As a result of these multiple (but largely independent) strands of innovation the UK has established a pre-eminent position in the science and practice of flood risk analysis and long term infrastructure investment planning. Programmes such as the National Flood Risk Assessment (NaFRA) and the Long Term Investment Strategy (LTIS) (undertaken by the Environment Agency) have built upon this knowledge and continue to represent leading international practice. LTIS is particularly noteworthy as the first national infrastructure investment strategy that is explicitly based on national flood risk analysis. Although the past decade has been powerful in driving innovations it has, understandably, led to a proliferation of techniques that are difficult for practitioners and researchers to access and build upon. Many users are now confused as to what is best practice, and the credibility of the results. Recent publications that question some of these results have been a legitimate challenge to complex environmental models. It is now timely to confirm, consolidate and disseminate the current state-of-art through concerted knowledge transfer (KT) and provide the platform for future advances and collaboration between business and academia. The concerted knowledge transfer proposed here will provide a significant contribution to: (i) enable stakeholders (both leading consultancies and infrastructure providers) to capitalize on existing risk analysis capabilities to target investments to build resilience; (ii) reinvigorate a wave of co-innovation within system risk analysis and investment planning; (iii) maintain UK's pre-eminence in the fields of natural hazard risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty, and (iv) strengthen the competitive advantage of UK-based consultants internationally.The FoRUM project:1. Transfer knowledge and skills about flood risk analysis - We will consolidate the advances in recent years, including the approaches to the incorporation of infrastructure failure, spatial coherence with storm conditions and the interactions between channel and floodplain dynamics. We will explore the relationship between top-down and bottom-up models and opportunities for the strengths of one to be used to compensate for the weaknesses of the other. In doing so we will highlight recognized limitations and key uncertainties. 2. Transfer knowledge and understanding about investment planning under conditions of future change and regional/local implications - We will consolidate recent advances in investment planning and the approaches adopted at national and regional levels. We will compare and contrast the techniques developed through initiatives such as FRMRC and the Agency sponsored Adaptive Capacity project and long-term Investment studies with those underdevelopment in the Netherlands and within leading corporations (e.g. RAND, World Bank). We will help stakeholders access the latest thinking and techniques to support investment planning and set the approaches being adopted in the UK in the context of wider international practice.3. Promote a better understanding of the credibility of national estimates of risk -Through the use of case studies, we compare and contrast risk estimates provided at national (through the National Flood Risk Assessment) with those provided at a more local levels (through best practice local analysis). This will enable us to explore the credibility of the analysis at different scales and the uncertainties that users should acknowledge.