GOTHAM - Globally Observed Teleconnections in Hierarchies of Atmospheric Models

GOTHAM是一项雄心勃勃的研究计划，旨在获得IPCC确定的包括热带和高纬度地区在内的脆弱地区过去和现在的模式和趋势以及变化的可靠、相关和可转移的知识。它将通过确定远程驱动因素或远程联系对区域气候变率的影响并评估其相对影响来实现这一目标。它还将利用当代气候模型、公民科学计算和先进的统计分析工具，评估改进季节-十年预测的潜力。GOTHAM得到了许多国际天气和气候研究中心的直接支持，并将在区域层面上改善季节-十年预测的发展。对影响热带/亚热带和极地区域天气和气候的动力因素的认识和理解的提高，将直接影响天气和气候预报服务，以协助他们决定其模式开发的优先领域，以提高预报技能。例如，GOTHAM将建议一个模式是否缺失或歪曲了在确定的脆弱地区显著影响区域气候的重要全球远程连接。这些影响将通过与高谭市调查小组及其扩展的合作网络的定期会议，以及广泛参与具有共同战略的更广泛的科学和科学政策计划，例如WCRP内的核心项目来实现。改进的季节至十年尺度预报将改进对极端事件和自然灾害风险的预测，如可能对社会造成破坏性影响的洪水。项目成果确实有可能转化为与影响有关的研究，例如涉及水文和洪水预报模型的研究，这些研究将在与亚洲和欧洲确定的合作伙伴的联系下进行探索。

GOTHAM represents an ambitious research programme to gain robust, relevant and transferable knowledge of past and present day patterns and trends of regional climate extremes and variability of vulnerable areas identified by the IPCC, including the tropics and high-latitudes. It will achieve this by identifying the influence of remote drivers, or teleconnections, on regional climate variability, and assessing their relative impact. It will also assess the potential for improved season-decadal prediction using a combination of contemporary climate models, citizen-science computing and advanced statistical analysis tools. GOTHAM has the direct backing of many international weather and climate research centres, and will lead to the improved development of seasonal-decadal forecasts at the regional level. The improved knowledge and understanding of dynamical factors that influence regional weather and climate in the tropics/sub-tropics, and polar regions, will directly feed through to weather and climate forecast services to assist in their decisions on which priority areas of their model development to target in order to improve forecast skills. For example, GOTHAM will advise whether a model is missing or misrepresenting important global teleconnections that significantly influence regional climate in identified vulnerable regions. These impacts will be achieved through regular meetings with GOTHAM investigator groups and their extended collaborative networks, and extensive involvement in wider science and science-policy programmes with co-aligned strategies, such as the core projects within the WCRP. Improved seasonal to decadal scale forecasts will improve predictions of extreme events and natural hazard risks such as flooding that can have devastating impact on society. There is real potential for project results feeding through to impacts-related research, such as those involved in hydrological and flood forecast modeling, and these will be explored in liaison with identified partners in Asia and Europe.