Coastal Resilience to flooding Impact through relocatable Storm surge forecasting Capability for developing nations (C-RISC)

虽然海洋环境是世界各地不断增长的沿海社区的重要资源，但它也可能对这些社区的生活和生计构成重大危害。一种重要的海洋灾害是由风暴和随之而来的巨浪引起的。风暴潮是由低气压和大风共同造成的海平面的大规模上升。它们导致海岸洪水、海岸侵蚀和盐入侵。这反过来又造成生命损失、财产破坏和农业用地退化。它们是一种全球性的危害，尤其是对低洼沿海社区的影响。在许多地方，这些人是最贫穷和最脆弱的社区。提供准确和及时的海平面预报对避免和减轻这种危险有很大的好处，因为它可以向社区和紧急服务部门提供提前预警，就像天气预报提供极端降雨或大风条件的预警一样。在这个项目中，我们的目标是提供一个具有成本效益的风暴潮预报系统，可以在世界上任何沿海地区随时部署。我们建立在过去十年中在几个NERC项目中开发的数值海洋模拟能力的基础上。这些项目包括以大陆架海洋生物地球化学、大陆架运输为重点的项目，以及NERC的海洋模拟国家能力方案。所有这些都需要开发高度精确的陆架海模式，包括潮汐和风力驱动的海平面变化的相关物理过程。在这个项目中，我们将开发软件能力，将这些NERC项目中的建模方法转移到世界上任何海洋区域，并使用简化的物理原理作为风暴潮预测模型运行。这些将在欧洲西北部大陆架海域和我们在马达加斯加周围西印度洋的示范区域进行测试。为了提供一个可靠的预报设置，我们将把这个系统转移到云计算服务。由微软和亚马逊等公司提供的这种服务允许用户租用一台全天候维护的计算机设备，具有很高的可靠性，并且可以复制。重要的是，它可以在世界任何地方访问，无需在合作伙伴组织的计算机上远程设置系统。一旦在云服务上设置好，我们将在2018/19气旋季节运行一个试运行期来测试系统。在整个项目中，我们将与马达加斯加的两个主要利益攸关方合作：国家海洋研究中心（CNRO）是一个专注于海洋学研究的公共机构，其任务是响应政府在这一领域的需求；气象总指挥（DGM）是马达加斯加气象局，它提供气旋预警服务。我们会提供有关运作系统的培训课程，并因应他们对预报数据产品的需要，以及在项目结束后继续提供服务的可能性。

While the marine environment represents a substantial resource for growing coastal communities around the world it also can represent a substantial hazard to the life and livelihood of these communities. An important marine hazard arises from storms and their consequent surges. Surges are large scale increases in sea level resulting from a combination low atmospheric pressure and high winds. They lead to coastal flooding, coastal erosion and salt intrusion. In turn this results in loss of life, destruction of property and degradation of agricultural land. They are a global hazard that particularly impacts low lying coastal communities. In many places these are the poorest and most vulnerable communities. The provision of accurate and timely sea level forecasts can be of substantial benefit to avoiding and mitigating this hazard, by giving advanced warning to the communities and emergency services, in a similar way that weather forecasts provide warning of extreme rain or wind conditions. In this project we aim to provide a cost effective storm surge forecasts system that can be readily deployed for any coastal region of the world. We build on numerical ocean modelling capability developed in several of NERC project over the last decade. These have included projects focusing on Shelf Sea Biogeochemistry, on Ocean-Shelf transport and also NERC's National Capability Programme in Ocean Modelling. All of these required the development of highly accurate shelf sea models, include relevant physical processes of tides and wind-driven sea level variability.In this project we will develop the software capability to transfer the modelling approaches in these NERC projects to any sea region in the world and run as a storm surge forecast model, with simplified physics. These will be tested in NW European shelf seas and our demonstrator region in the Western Indian Ocean around Madagascar. To provide a reliable forecast set up we will transfer this system to a cloud computing service. Such services run by, e.g., Microsoft and Amazon, allow a user to rent a computer facility that is maintained 24/7, has a high level of reliability and can be duplicated. Importantly, it can be accessed anywhere in the world, removing the need to remotely setup a system on a partner organisation's computer. Once setup on the cloud service, we will run a trial operational period during the 2018/19 cyclone season to test the system. Throughout the project we will work with two key stakeholders in Madagascar: the Centre National de Recherches Océanographiques (CNRO) is a public institute focusing on Oceanographic Research, tasked with responding to Government needs in this area and Direction Generale de la Meteorologie (DGM) is the Madagascan Met Office, who provide a cyclone warning service. We will provide a training session on the operational system and adapt to their needs regarding forecast data products and the potential to continue the service beyond the project.