Emergence of Climate Hazards

气候灾害是指天气和气候“极端事件”，可造成生命损失、伤害或其他健康影响，并对财产、基础设施、生计、服务提供和环境资源造成损害和损失。例如：- 2003年西欧的夏季热浪，被认为是500年来前所未有的，造成2万多人过早死亡，主要是老年人等社会弱势群体-南亚季风季风失败和随后的农业损失-农业占国内生产总值的18%，但雇用了东南亚60%的人口（约10亿人）- 2015/16年极端厄尔尼诺Niño事件导致洪水，2013/2014年冬季，一连串的风暴袭击了英格兰南部，造成了严重的洪水和4.51亿英镑的保险损失。这些事件极有可能受到全球气候变化的影响，而我们目前还不清楚这种影响的方式。未来的气候变化可能会进一步加剧它们的影响。该项目将评估过去和现在气候变化对气候灾害的影响，并预测其未来的变化。人们之所以关注未来30年，是因为这一时间尺度与政府、企业和个人制定的适应战略息息相关。EMERGENCE将使用来自最先进的气候模型的信息，包括具有前所未有的精细细节的模型。它将利用前沿观测来约束气候模型预测，利用已经观测到的变化，利用新的和改进的分析技术（包括事件归因、机器学习和特征跟踪），这些技术在以前对旧模型的气候危害评估中是不可用的或没有广泛应用的。所涉及的危害包括：极端热应激事件、热带洪水和干旱以及与之相关的极端大风和降雨的风暴。这些信息将被纳入全球指标，形成气候灾害风险的简要概述，进而成为政策制定者的重要资源。该项目对气候灾害出现的评估将及时产生，以供政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的下一次评估使用，与物理气候科学和影响相关。该小组包括来自英国气象局的一些领先的气候科学项目合作伙伴，他们在IPCC中有着良好的记录，因此是提供这种投入和进一步加强英国气候科学在国际舞台上的形象的理想人选。

Climate hazards are weather and climate 'extreme events' that can cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, and environmental resources. Examples include:- The summer heat wave of 2003 in Western Europe, thought to be unprecedented in 500 years, which caused more that 20,000 early deaths, mainly among vulnerable groups in society such as the elderly- South Asian Monsoon monsoon failures and subsequent agricultural losses - agriculture accounts for 18% of GDP, but employs 60% of people in S. Asia (~1 billion people)- The extreme El Niño event of 2015/16 that caused floods, droughts and wildfires globally and drove the fastest annual increase in CO2 on record- A succession of storms reaching southern England in the winter of 2013/2014, causing severe floods and £451 million of insured lossesSuch events are, most likely, influenced by global climate change in ways that we do not currently understand. Future climate change may further exacerbate their impacts.This project will assess the impact of climate change on climate hazards in the past and present and project forward their changes into the future. There is a focus on the next 30 years because of the relevance of this time scale for adaptation strategies produced by governments, businesses and individuals.EMERGENCE will use information from state-of-the-art climate models, including from models with unprecedented fine detail. It will use cutting edge observations in order to constrain climate model predictions using changes already observed, drawing on new and improved analysis techniques (including event attribution, machine learning and feature tracking) that were not available or not widely applied during previous assessments of climate hazards from older models. The hazards addressed are: extreme heat stress events, tropical deluges and droughts, and storms with their associated extreme winds and rainfall. Information will be integrated into global indicators that will form a snapshot summary of climate hazard risks that, in turn, will be an essential resource for policy makers.The project's assessments of the emergence of climate hazards will be produced in a timely fashion to feed into the next assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), being relevant to both physical climate science and impacts. The team assembled, including a number of leading climate science project partners from the Met Office, has a strong track record in IPCC and is thus ideally placed to provide this input and to further strengthen the profile of UK climate science in the international arena.