Opportunities and trade-offs between the SDGs for food, welfare and the environment in deltas.

可持续发展目标（SDG）是一项指导和促进国家和国际可持续发展的综合战略。此外，通过制定与每个目标和子目标相关的指标，可持续发展目标支持监测、评估和适应性管理的概念，并以社会正义、公平和透明的愿望为基础。因此，SDG的战略价值是有充分依据的。然而，个别可持续发展目标与发展道路之间可能的协同作用、冲突和权衡得到的关注有限。该项目的总体目标是分析可持续发展目标在复杂的社会生态系统（SES）中的协同作用和冲突，并探索由此产生的机会和政策权衡。我们使用三角洲作为SES的例子，因为三角洲系统很好地说明了2030年议程的复杂挑战。总的来说，它们是5亿人的家园，这些人往往很穷，严重依赖农村生计。与此同时，它们受到在多个规模上运作的多种变革驱动因素的影响。例子包括全球气候变化和海平面上升，三角洲沉降和减少沉积物输入，由于全球海产品需求，广泛的土地使用从农业转换为水产养殖，以及广泛的移民和城市化。由此产生的生物物理、经济或社会方面的权衡取舍、系统性转变和临界阈值难以预见，而且往往难以逆转。线性的“指挥和控制”发展计划和政策不足以规划可持续发展的道路。相反，需要更动态和适应性更强的管理方法来驾驭这种复杂性。综合评估模型（IAM）提供了一个全系统的工具，促进多学科的方法来探索复杂系统的动态，并允许广泛参与其开发和应用。该项目将共同开发一个参与性的综合评估模型，以探讨关键的可持续性挑战以及无贫困、零饥饿、减少不平等、气候行动和陆地及水下生命等可持续发展目标之间的相互作用（对应于可持续发展目标1、2、10、13、14和15）。印度西孟加拉的恒河三角洲将被用作案例研究，包括北部24个Parganas区和南部24个Parganas区，其中包括大加尔各答的一部分，拥有约1800万人口。项目团队可以从DECCMA项目中获得该网站的广泛的高度相关的基础数据。IAM将被开发和应用，以探索可持续发展目标的未来和影响，包括广泛的参与性参与和对情景和一系列政策选择的考虑。重点将是了解所选可持续发展目标之间的机会和权衡，以及确定关键阈值。科学家和决策者将联合收割机结合他们在当前政策挑战方面的专业知识，以及恒河三角洲水文、农业、渔业（包括水产养殖）、贫困、生计和生态方面的数据和模型，开发综合农业评估模型。将查明关键的知识差距，并在必要时利用二级数据来源和快速实地工作活动填补这些差距。可持续发展目标的时间框架是到2030年，这将是我们研究的主要重点。然而，我们的分析也将从更广泛的角度考虑到2050年及以后的变化，以研究可持续发展目标时间框架内的决策如何影响长期结果。将通过与西孟加拉和印度负责实现和报告可持续发展目标的主要决策者和机构举办参与式研讨会，探讨成果。该方法和研究结果还将与国际受众分享，以展示该方法的应用，三角洲地区可持续发展目标权衡的性质，以及实施和实现可持续发展目标的挑战。

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are offered as a comprehensive strategy to guide and promote sustainable development, nationally and internationally. Furthermore, through the development of indicators associated with each goal and sub-goal, the SDGs support the notion of monitoring, evaluation and adaptive management, underpinned by aspirations of social justice, equity and transparency. As such, the strategic value of the SDGs is well founded. However, possible synergies, conflicts and trade-offs between individual SDGs and development pathways have received limited attention. The overall aim of the project is to analyse the synergies and conflicts between the SDGs in complex socio-ecological systems (SES) and explore the resulting opportunities and trade-offs in policy. We use deltas as an example SES, as delta systems well illustrate the complex challenge of Agenda 2030. Collectively, they are home to 500 million people who are often poor with a strong dependence on rural livelihoods. At the same time, they are subject to multiple drivers of change operating at multiple scales. Examples include global climate change and sea-level rise, deltaic subsidence and reducing sediment inputs, extensive land use conversion from agriculture to aquaculture due to global seafood demand, and widespread migration and urbanisation. The resultant trade-offs, systemic shifts and critical thresholds in biophysical, economic or social dimensions are hard to foresee and often difficult to reverse. Linear 'command and control' plans and policies for development are inadequate to plot a course towards sustainable development. Instead, more dynamic and adaptive management approaches are needed to navigate this complexity. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) provide a whole-system tool that promotes multi-disciplinary approaches to explore the dynamics of complex systems and allows extensive participatory engagement in their development and application. This project will collaboratively develop a participatory IAM to explore critical sustainability challenges and interactions between the SDGs of no poverty, zero hunger, reduced inequalities, climate action and life on land and below water (corresponding to SDGs 1, 2, 10, 13, 14 and 15). The Ganga delta, West Bengal, India will be used as a case study, comprising the North 24 Parganas and South 24 Parganas Districts, which include part of Greater Kolkata, and are home to ~18 million people.The project team has access to an extensive highly relevant base data for the site, available from the DECCMA project. The IAM will be developed and applied to explore plauible futures, and impacts for the selected SDGs, including extensive participatory engagement and consideration of scenarios and a range of policy options. There will be a focus on understanding the opportunities and trade-offs between the selected SDGs, as well as identifying key thresholds. Scientists and decision makers will combine their expertise on current policy challenges, together with data and models on hydrology, agriculture, fisheries (including aquaculture), poverty, livelihoods and ecology in the Ganga Delta to develop the IAM. Key knowledge gaps will be identified and filled with secondary data sources and a rapid fieldwork campaign as necessary. The timeframe of the SDGs is to 2030, which will be the major focus of our research. However, our analysis will also consider in more general terms changes to 2050 and beyond to examine how decisions within the SDG timeframe influence longer-term outcomes. The results will be explored through participatory workshops with key decision makers and agencies in West Bengal and India responsible for achieving and reporting on SDGs. The approach and the findings will also be shared with international audiences to demonstrate the application of this approach, the nature of SDG trade-offs in deltaic regions, and the challenges of operationalising and achieving the SDG targets.