WateR security And climate cHange adaptation in PerUvian glacier-fed river basins (RAHU)

气候变化导致的冰川萎缩对山区和下游低地的水安全产生的预期影响是一个主要的全球关切。然而，气候变化、冰川萎缩、水安全和当地适应能力之间的关系是多维和非线性的。在包括秘鲁在内的世界许多地区，人们对支配它们的物质和人类过程知之甚少。因此，理解这些过程及其影响并实施充分的以科学为基础的适应战略需要采取跨学科的方法。这种方法应该结合推进冰川学和水文过程理解的最新进展，以及对当前和未来水安全水平、人类脆弱性和适应能力的新见解。我们建议通过开发综合冰川-水安全评估模型来应对这一挑战，以改变我们对冰川萎缩对水安全影响的理解，并为秘鲁的政策实践提供信息。我们认为，冰川学、水文气候学和水资源数据的缺乏是实现这一目标的主要瓶颈。因此，我们建议参与式水资源监测作为一种全新的方法来转变我们对物理过程的知识，约束水资源模型，并支持基于证据的政策制定。我们组建了一个世界领先的联合体，将秘鲁冰川和水资源实地监测和计算机模拟方面的高水平专门知识与参与性数据收集的先驱结合在一起，以促进可持续发展和政策支持。在冰川减少与当前和未来水安全之间的联系方面，该联盟处于理想的位置，可以在数据可用性方面取得突破。这是建立下一代冰川学和水文模型所必需的，这些模型可以支持适当的气候适应战略的设计和实施。我们将以秘鲁南部的维尔卡诺塔-乌鲁班巴盆地为例进行研究。该盆地拥有最大的热带冰盖(奎尔卡亚)，其特点是水管理背景非常复杂，数据高度稀缺。我们的项目将遵循“从源头到自来水”的模式，在这一模式下，我们将为冰川供养的盆地提供第一个全面整合的水资源脆弱性评估框架，包括最先进的冰川学、水文学、水需求特征和水安全评估。我们将设计有针对性的冰川水文和水资源监测活动，以补充我们项目合作伙伴和合作者的现有监测工作，以及新的遥感数据集。这项活动将使用我们的团队在热带地区首创的参与式监测和知识共同创造的原则和工具来实施。通过这种方法产生的数据集，与我们的团队和合作者实施的现有监测相结合，将使我们能够为冰川化盆地建立一个综合的水供应-需求-脆弱性评估模型，并利用该模型来评估当地的适应战略。对于后者，我们与秘鲁的一系列政策利益攸关方接触，这些利益攸关方在实施秘鲁水资源管理最近的变革性立法方面发挥了关键作用，与这些利益攸关方直接合作将确保我们的方法侧重于与当地相关的适应战略，包括新的方法，如使用基于自然的解决方案和恢复祖传水的“播种和收获做法”，从而为实施这一法律框架提供科学基础和操作工具。

The anticipated impacts of climate-change induced glacier shrinkage on the water security of mountains and downstream lowlands is a major global concern. However, the connections between climate change, glacier shrinkage, water security and local adaptive capacity are multi-dimensional and non-linear. In many regions of the world including Peru, the physical and human processes that govern them are poorly understood. Therefore, understanding these process, their impacts and implementing adequate science-based adaptation strategies requires an interdisciplinary approach. This approach should combine advancing the state-of-the-art of glaciological and hydrological process understanding, with new insights in current and future levels of water security, human vulnerability, and adaptive capacity.We propose to address this challenge by developing an integrated glacier - water security assessment model to transform our understanding of the impact of glacier shrinkage on water security and to inform policy practices in Peru. We identify the lack of glaciological, hydro-climatological, and water resources data as a major bottleneck to achieve this. Therefore, we propose participatory water resources monitoring as a radically new approach to transform our knowledge of physical processes, constraining water resources models, and supporting evidence-based policy-making. We have assembled a world-leading consortium that combines high-level expertise in field monitoring and computer simulation of glaciers and water resources in Peru, with pioneers of participatory data collection for sustainable development and policy-support. This consortium is ideally placed to generate a breakthrough in data availability on the link between glacier reduction and current and future water security. This is needed to build the next generation of glaciological and hydrological models that can support the design and implementation of adequate climate adaptation strategies.We will use the Vilcanota-Urubamba Basin in southern Peru as our case study. This basin hosts the largest tropical ice cap (Quelccaya) and it is characterised by a very complex water management context and high data scarcity. Our project will follow a "source to tap" paradigm, in which we will deliver the first fully integrated water resources vulnerability assessment framework for glacier-fed basins, comprising state-of-the-art glaciology, hydrology, water demand characterisation, and water security assessment. We will design targeted glacio-hydrological and water resources monitoring campaigns, to complemented existing monitoring efforts of our project partners and collaborators, and new remotely sensed data sets. This campaign will be implemented using the principles and tools of participatory monitoring and knowledge co-creation that our team has pioneered in the tropical Andes.The datasets produced by this approach, combined with existing monitoring implemented by our team and collaborators, will allow us to build an integrated water supply-demand-vulnerability assessment model for glacierized basins, and to use this to evaluate adaptation strategies at the local scale.For the latter, we have engaged with a set of policy stakeholders in Peru that play a key role in the implementation of recent transformative legislation on Peruvian water resources management, and in particular in the new law on the implementation of water funds to invest in catchment interventions (Law 30215).Working directly with these stakeholders will ensure that our approach focuses on locally relevant adaptation strategies, including novel approaches such as the use of nature-based solutions and the restoration of ancestral water "seeding and harvesting practices", thus providing both the scientific basis and the operational tools that support the implementation of this legal framework.