The interplay of land-use, climate and plant biodiversity on the UK stage

景观由不同的生境及其内部的生物多样性组成，是气候、地理和人类利用相互作用的产物。它们提供许多生态系统服务，如提供食物和水、调节气候和碳循环，这些服务对我们的社会、经济、健康和福祉的稳定未来至关重要。现在人们普遍认识到，由于不可持续的使用和长期的气候变化，我们正在退化我们的景观的健康，尽管跟踪这些变化仍然很困难。特别是，植物是所有陆地生态系统的基础，是提供生态系统服务的基础，吸收了20%的化石燃料排放；然而，关于三分之一植物物种的记录非常缺乏数据，以至于无法对灭绝风险进行正式评估。《生物多样性公约》制定的爱知生物多样性目标的一个关键目标是通过可持续利用农业、林业和渔业来确保生物多样性的保护，而英国在这方面的进展速度不足以在2020年的最后期限前完成。因此，我们用来评估当前植物多样性趋势并探索与环境和土地利用的相互作用的工具，对于确保英国植物系统的未来是至关重要的。目前的生物多样性模型使用非常粗糙的植物分组，缺乏必要的详细程度来为保护规划和决策提供信息。在这里，我们建议将我们多年来在全球范围内开发的建模框架扩展到仅专注于英国的植物，其中有1800多个物种，以便利用可用于气候、土地利用和植物物种的更高分辨率和更详细的质量记录。这些模拟将根据不同的土地利用和气候变化情景来预测植物生物多样性模式随时间的潜在变化，然后可以用来了解这些变化的影响，并最终指导未来的景观决策。

Landscapes are composed of different habitats as well as the biodiversity that resides within them, and are a product of interactions between climate, geography and human use. They provide many ecosystem services, such as provision of food and water, regulation of climate and carbon cycling, which are vital for a stable future for our society, economy, health and wellbeing. It is now widely recognised that we are degrading the health of our landscapes through unsustainable use and long-term climate change, although it remains difficult to track these changes. In particular, plants form the basis of all terrestrial ecosystems, are fundamental to providing ecosystem services, absorb 20% of fossil fuel emissions; yet records on a third of plant species are so data deficient that formal assessments of extinction risk cannot be made. A key goal of the Aichi biodiversity targets set out by the Convention on Biological Diversity, sought to ensure the conservation of biodiversity through sustainable use of agriculture, forestry and fisheries and for which the UK is progressing at an insufficient rate to meet the 2020 deadline. Therefore, tools by which we assess current trends in plant biodiversity and explore the interaction with both environmental and land use are fundamental for ensuring the future of UK's plant systems. Current models of biodiversity use very coarse groupings of plants that lack the necessary level of detail to inform conservation planning and decision making. Here, we propose to extend a modelling framework that we have been developing over several years at a global scale to focus exclusively on plants of the UK, of which there are over 1,800 species, in order to take advantage of the higher resolution and qualitatively more detailed records available for climate, land use and plant species. These simulations will predict potential change in plant biodiversity patterns over time based on different land use and climate change scenarios, which can then be used to understand the impact of these changes and ultimately guide future landscape decision making.