UPSURGE: Helping storm surge barriers prepare for climate change

在过去的30年里，耗资数十亿英镑建造了20多个大型防洪堤和许多其他小型防洪堤，为沿海地区的人民、财产和基础设施提供防洪保护。在以风暴潮著称的北海海岸线周围，有16个风暴潮屏障，为英国东海岸和荷兰低洼沿海地区的社区提供洪水保护。如果没有泰晤士河堤坝，伦敦作为一个主要的世界城市的存在将是不稳定的，荷兰的1700万居民只能生活在接近或低于海平面的沿海地区，因为有5个浪涌堤坝和伴随的防御措施。由于气候变化，特别是海平面上升和风暴强度的变化，防波堤不得不更频繁地使用，这已经开始对防波堤的运行、完整性/可靠性、维护和预计寿命产生负面影响。增加使用屏障也对航运和屏障后面的河口/河流的健康及其所支持的重要生态系统（如盐沼）产生负面影响。即使我们稳定或减少碳排放，也会有很长一段时间无法做出反应，海平面将在数百年内继续上升。因此，屏障运营商必须仔细考虑气候变化的全方位影响，并相应地调整其运营、维护和管理策略，以及未来的升级/更换计划，这样屏障才能继续有效地保护人类的生命和生计。在这个知识交流奖学金中，我建议在3年内将50%的时间用于两个主要组织，环境署和Rijkswaterstaat。他们共同运营和管理英国和荷兰的16个风暴潮屏障。在整个奖学金期间，我还将定期与I- storm进行互动，这是一个国际知识共享网络，为有关风暴潮屏障的管理，操作和维护的专业人员提供服务，以确保奖学金可以使世界各地所有现有（和计划中的）风暴潮屏障受益。我将开展四项相互关联的主要活动。首先，我将与环境署和Rijkswaterstaat的相关团队深入合作，编制一份全面的清单，列出海平面上升和气候变化的其他影响对防波堤操作/管理产生负面影响的不同方式。我们将仔细考虑可能的解决方案/适应策略，以应对气候变化带来的每一项挑战，并确定可能需要更换主要屏障的临界点和相关时间。其次，我将帮助屏障运营商建立一个框架和软件工具，使他们更容易：(I)实时监测和评估不同浪涌屏障附近的海平面（以及其他相关的气候相关变量）是如何变化的；（ii）量化随着时间的推移，这对关闭数量的影响；（iii）评估到目前为止这对屏障的操作/维护有何影响。第三，我将创建一个灵活的软件工具，使运营商能够轻松准确地估计任何障碍和任何给定的气候变化预测的未来可能关闭的数量。这将被战略家用来帮助指导未来升级/更换关键屏障基础设施的适应性规划，这在未来将不可避免地需要。第四，我们将与EA、Rijkswaterstaat和I-STORM密切合作，将从上述三项活动中吸取的经验教训提炼成一份政策简报，并附带软件工具，这将更好地使全球的屏障管理人员能够在未来证明其运营对气候变化的影响，并为未来的屏障升级/更换制定适应性规划。

Over the last 30-years more than 20 large surge barriers, and many other smaller ones, have been built at a cost of billions of pounds, to provide flood protection to people, property and infrastructure in coastal areas. Around the North Sea coastline, which is renowned for its large storm surges there are 16 storm surge barriers that offer flood protection to communities in low-lying coastal areas on the UK east coast and in the Netherlands. London's very existence as a major world city would be precarious without the Thames Barrier and 17 million inhabitants Netherlands' are only able to live in coastal regions which are near to or below sea level, because of the presence of 5 surge barriers, and accompanying defences. As a result of climate change, especially sea-level rise and changes in storminess, surge barriers are having to be used more frequently and this is already starting to negatively impact barrier operation, integrity/reliability, maintenance and projected lifespan. Increased use of barriers also has negative ramifications for shipping and the health of the estuary/river behind the barrier, and the important ecosystems (e.g., saltmarshes) they support. Even if we stabilise or reduce our carbon emission, there is a long-time delay in response and sea levels will continue to rise for many hundreds of years. Therefore, it is vital that barrier operators carefully consider the full range of impacts of climate change and adapt their operation, maintenance and management strategies, and future upgrade/replacement plans accordingly, so they will continue to be effective in protecting human lives and livelihoods. In this Knowledge Exchange Fellowship, I propose to work 50% of my time over 3-years with two key organisations, the Environment Agency and Rijkswaterstaat. Together they operate and manage 16 storm surge barriers in the UK and Netherlands. Throughout the fellowship I will also interact regularly with I-STORM, an international knowledge sharing network for professionals relating to the management, operation and maintenance of storm surge barriers, to ensure the fellowship can benefit all the existing (and planned) storm surge barriers around the world.I will undertake four main inter-linked activities. First, I will deeply imbed myself with the relevant teams in the EA and Rijkswaterstaat to produce a comprehensive inventory of the different ways sea-level rise and other effects of climate change will negatively impact surge barrier operation/management. We will carefully consider possible solutions/adaption strategies to each of these challenge that arise from climate change, and identify tipping points and associated timings when a major barrier replacement might be required.Second, I will help barrier operators to establish a framework and software tool that will make it easier for them to: (i) monitor and assess in real time how sea levels (and other relevant climate related variables) are changing in the vicinity of different surge barriers; (ii) quantify how this has impacted the number of closures over time; and (iii) in turn assess how this has affected barrier operation/maintenance to date.Third, I will create a flexible software tool that will allow operators to easily and accurately estimate the likely future number of closures for any barrier and any given climate change projection. This will be used by strategists to help guide adaptive planning of future upgrade/replacement of key barrier infrastructure, that will inevitably be required in the future. Fourth, working closely with the EA, Rijkswaterstaat and I-STORM, we will distil the lessons learnt from the three activities mentioned above, into a policy brief, packaged with accompanying software tools, that will better allow barrier managers worldwide to future proof their operations to climate change and develop adaptive planning for future barrier upgrades/replacements.