Investigating HALocarbon impacts on the global Environment

随着《基加利修正案》于2019年生效，《关于消耗臭氧层物质的蒙特利尔议定书》进入了一个重要的新阶段，大多数主要经济体将控制氢氟碳化合物的生产和使用。这一里程碑式的成就除了在保护臭氧层方面取得成功外，还将加强《议定书》对气候业已产生的巨大效益。然而，最近的科学进展表明，《蒙特利尔议定书》面临挑战，原因是新发现的被认为已逐步淘汰的消耗臭氧物质（ODS）的生产，《议定书》未加以控制的消耗臭氧化合物的迅速增长，以及卤代烃降解产物可能产生破坏性影响。该提案通过结合大气测量、实验室实验和先进的数值模拟技术，解决了围绕这些挑战的最紧迫的科学问题。我们将:1)显著扩大大气测量覆盖范围，以更好地了解卤代烃排放的全球分布，并确定以前未知的大气趋势；2)将工业模型和大气数据结合起来，以提高我们对生产（议定书控制的数量）、储存在建筑物和产品中的卤代烃“库”和向大气排放之间关系的理解；短寿命卤代烃及其对臭氧层恢复时间尺度的影响，4)探索最新一代卤代烃的复杂大气化学，并确定分解产物是否有可能导致气候变化或导致不可预见的负面环境后果；5)更好地量化卤代烃对气候的影响，完善用于比较国际协定和设计可能的缓解战略中卤代烃影响的与气候和臭氧消耗有关的指标。这项工作将由卤代烃研究领域的领导人组成的一个财团进行，他们在为《蒙特利尔议定书》各机构和政府间气候变化专门委员会作出贡献方面有着广泛的记录，确保将取得的新发展产生持久影响。

With the Kigali Amendment coming into force in 2019, the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer has entered a major new phase in which the production and use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) will be controlled in most major economies. This landmark achievement will enhance the Protocol's already-substantial benefits to climate, in addition to its success in protecting the ozone layer. However, recent scientific advances have shown that challenges lie ahead for the Montreal Protocol, due to the newly discovered production of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) thought to be phased-out, rapid growth of ozone-depleting compounds not controlled under the Protocol, and the potential for damaging impacts of halocarbon degradation products. This proposal tackles the most urgent scientific questions surrounding these challenges by combining state-of-the-art techniques in atmospheric measurements, laboratory experiments and advanced numerical modelling. We will: 1) significantly expand atmospheric measurement coverage to better understand the global distribution of halocarbon emissions and to identify previously unknown atmospheric trends, 2) combine industry models and atmospheric data to improve our understanding of the relationship between production (the quantity controlled under the Protocol), "banks" of halocarbons stored in buildings and products, and emissions to the atmosphere, 3) determine recent and likely future trends of unregulated, short-lived halocarbons, and implications for the timescale of recovery of the ozone layer, 4) explore the complex atmospheric chemistry of the newest generation of halocarbons and determine whether breakdown products have the potential to contribute to climate change or lead to unforeseen negative environmental consequences, 5) better quantify the influence of halocarbons on climate and refine the climate- and ozone-depletion-related metrics used to compare the effects of halocarbons in international agreements and in the design of possible mitigation strategies. This work will be carried out by a consortium of leaders in the field of halocarbon research, who have an extensive track record of contributing to Montreal Protocol bodies and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ensuring lasting impact of the new developments that will be made.