Statistical analysis of risk, failure, and extreme event propagation in the airline industry using multi-level networks

本项目的目标是建立一个多层次网络上极端事件风险扩散的数学模型，并利用极值理论、现代数理统计成果和网络理论等先进的数学工具对模型进行分析，并将定量结果与真实的数据进行比较。特别是，我们将在航空业的背景下研究这一点，在航空业中，飞机的电子或机械部件的故障会对部件供应网络、航空公司网络和航空公司保险公司网络产生影响。在航空业中，每家航空公司都与零部件制造商和保险公司建立了关系，该项目的主要目标是估计网络一个层面上的极端事件对另一个层面产生重大影响的概率，并为网络各层中的不同参与者模拟此类极端事件的成本。特别令人感兴趣的是飞机关键部件故障概率的估计，以及这种故障导致航空公司灾难性事件并最终导致保险公司极端损失的频率。

The goal of this project is to build a mathematical model for the spread of risk due to extreme events on multi-level networks and use advanced mathematical tools such as extreme value theory, modern results of mathematical statistics, and network theory, to analyse the model and compare the quantitative outcomes to real data. In particular, we will study this in the setting of the airline industry where failure of an electronic or mechanical component of an aircraft has an impact at the level of the component supply network, the airline network, and the airlines' insurer network. In the airline industry, each airline forms relationships with component manufacturers and insurers.The key goals of the project are to estimate the probability that an extreme event on one level of the network has significant consequences on another level and to model the costs of such extreme events for the different actors in the various layers of the network. Of particular interest is the estimation of the probability of failure of a critical component in an aircraft and the frequency with which such a failure results in a catastrophic event for an airline and ultimately in an extreme loss for insurers.