Why Some Generations Are More Violent Than Others

描述（由申请人提供）：暴力率每代都有波动。人们最初感兴趣的是，随着时间的推移，这些差异是由于群体之间的差异，还是由于社会和环境因素的差异。要回答的首要问题是“为什么有些世代比其他世代更暴力？”回答这个问题是我的职业目标。我的职业目标是通过将我在伤害研究和流行病学方面的坚实基础与心理学、犯罪学和统计学方面的新技能结合起来，成为一名研究暴力趋势过程的独立研究员。我的目的是进一步了解为什么暴力率会随着时间的推移而变化，并弥合不同学科之间的差距，以便能够评估这一多因素的公共卫生问题。对于暴力程度为何随时间波动这一重大公共卫生问题，人们仍渴望得到实证解释。这些研究的主要局限性包括排除混杂因素，没有利用真正的纵向数据，以及生态和个人主义谬论的存在。目前，人们对暴力趋势还没有明确的认识，存在多种相互矛盾的解释，包括某些年龄群体的患病率增加（群体效应）和某些时期发生的社会风险因素（时期效应）。存在如此多解释的一个主要原因是，暴力趋势的原因是多因素的，发生在不同的层面- -例如，社区和个人。对这些不同因素和水平的研究根植于不同的公共卫生、社会学和医学学科。我提议的培训计划将通过课程、研讨会和我的职业发展委员会的一对一培训，为我提供(1)发展心理学、(2)犯罪学和(3)高级统计学方面的额外技能。我们通过我们的第一代模型对PYS进行了初步分析，并发现队列效应由于时期效应而变得微不足道，这表明社会因素对暴力趋势的重要性。我的研究计划提出了一系列分析，最终形成了第二代模型——我们提出的暴力情境发展模型。这个模型将扩展我的导师罗尔夫·洛伯（Rolf Loeber）提出的已知的个人发展途径，将社会和环境因素纳入其中。从这些目标和未来工作中获得的知识可以用来帮助将公共卫生和刑事司法预防方案整合到一个整体方案中，这将比过去的许多努力更有效（49）。针对暴力的人、环境和工具因素的初级、二级和三级战略最终将成为可能。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Violence rates fluctuate from generation to generation. Of initial interest is whether these differences over time are due to differences between cohorts or differences in social and environmental factors. The primary question to be answered is "Why are some generations more violent than others?" It is my career goal to answer this question. My career goal is to become an independent researcher on the processes of violence trends by coupling my solid foundation of injury research and epidemiology with new skills in psychology, criminology and statistics. My aim is to further our knowledge about why violence rates change over time and bridge the gap between various disciplines to be able to assess this multi-factorial public health problem. Empirical explanations are still longing on the major public health problem of why the level of violence fluctuates over time. Major limitations of these studies include the exclusion of confounders, not utilizing true longitudinal data, and the presence of both the ecologic and individualistic fallacies. Currently violence trends are not clearly understood and a diversity of contrasting explanations exists, including increased prevalence in certain age cohorts (cohort effect) and social risk factors occurring during certain periods of time (period effect). A major reason that so many explanations exist is that the causes for violence trends are multifactorial and occur at different levels - e.g., the community and the individual. The study of these various factors and levels are rooted rather independently in various public health, sociologic, and medical disciplines. The training program I propose will provide me with additional skills in (1) developmental psychology, (2) criminology and (3) advanced statistics through classes, seminars, and one-on-one training with my career development committee. We have conducted initial analysis of the PYS through our first generation model and have found that cohort effects are rendered insignificant by period effects, suggesting the importance of social factors on violence trends. My research program proposes a series of analyses culminating in the development of a second-generation model - our proposed contextual-developmental model for violence. This model will expand on the known individual developmental pathways developed by Rolf Loeber my mentor for this proposal, by the inclusion of social and environmental factors. Knowledge from these aims and from future work stemming from this proposal can be used to help integrate public health and criminal justice prevention programs into an overall program that will be more effective than many efforts in the past (49). Primary, secondary, and tertiary strategies aimed at the human, environmental, and instrumental elements of violence will ultimately be possible.