New model for describing and projecting adult mortality

描述（由申请人提供）：拟议研究的总体目标是开发和测试一种新的方法，以预测按年龄和性别划分的成人死亡率的未来趋势。这个新程序纠正了现有预测方法的缺点，包括广泛使用的李-卡特模型。对成人死亡率作出更准确的预测，对于改进对最老年龄组人口规模的预测以及对公共养恤金和保健系统未来费用的预测至关重要。具体目的如下：1)完成死亡力年龄分布的logistic模型的拟合优度检验。初步试验使用了来自人类死亡率数据库的14个人群中25-109岁男女的国别数据，结果表明logistic模型的两个变体很好地拟合了1950-2000年期间的数据。这些测试将在有这种数据的8个国家扩大到1950年以前的时期。2)检验一般移位模型的拟合优度。该模型仅使用2个参数来描述成人死亡率随时间的变化：1用于老年死亡率的年龄变化量，另一个用于背景死亡率水平。这种方法引入了另一种思考老年死亡率变化的方法。认为死亡率变化意味着按年龄划分的死亡率增加或减少的传统观点被认为死亡率变化是死亡时间变化的结果的观点所取代。该模型有望对过去的趋势提供简明的数学描述。3)在一般转移死亡率模型的基础上，开发一种预测特定年龄性别的成人死亡率随时间变化的新方法。4)通过将其结果与Lee-Carter程序产生的投影结果进行比较来测试新的投影方法。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The overall objective of the proposed research is to develop and test a new methodology for projecting future trends in adult mortality by age and sex. This new procedure corrects shortcomings in existing forecasting methods, including the widely used Lee-Carter model. More accurate projections of adult mortality are essential to improving projections of the population size of the oldest age groups, and of the future cost of public pension and health care systems. Specific aims are as follows: 1) Complete testing the goodness-of-fit of the logistic model for the age pattern of the force of mortality. Preliminary tests used country-specific data from the Human Mortality Data Bank for females and males ages 25-109 in 14 populations and demonstrated that 2 variants of the logistic models fit well for the period 1950-2000. These tests will be extended to the pre-1950 period in 8 countries for which such data are available. 2) Test the goodness-of-fit of the general shifting model. This model uses only 2 parameters to describe adult mortality change over time: 1 for the amount of the age shift in senescent mortality and the other for the level of background mortality. This approach introduces an alternative way of thinking about senescent mortality change. The conventional view that mortality change implies increases or decreases in age-specific mortality rates is replaced with the view that considers mortality change to be the result of changes in the timing of death. The model is expected to provide a concise mathematical description of past trends. 3) Develop a new methodology for projecting age-sex specific adult mortality rates over time based on the general shifting mortality model. 4) Test the new projection method by comparing its results with projections produced by the Lee-Carter procedure.