The short-term economic impact of Peru's internal conflict: A fixed effects two sector approach.

最近通胀非常高的时期引发了对通胀目标制货币政策(利率调整)有效性的质疑。人们越来越认识到，重要的通胀来源(如不断上涨的能源价格)不在中央银行的管辖范围之内。这篇论文探讨了财政政策在实现价格稳定方面发挥更重要作用的理由，特别是国家对与系统性价格影响相关的关键行业(如能源和食品)征税(和战略性投资)的潜力。我将开发一个适合政策制定者使用的经验模型框架，该框架将能够识别通胀敏感行业，并设计出一种可实际用于评估财政政策建议的通胀风险指标。该框架将通过在两个不同的案例研究中进行经验评估而得到完善。第一种是拥有主权货币和完善的宏观经济政策体系的高收入经济体(英国)。第二个是发展中国家(秘鲁)，由于其全球货币疲软和对外国进口的依赖，它面临着不同的挑战。除了使用这些国家的数据集，我还将对关注价格稳定的国家机构的工作人员进行有选择的采访。

The recent period of very high inflation has called in to question the effectiveness of monetary policy (interest rate adjustments) for inflation targeting. It is increasingly recognised that important sources of inflation (e.g. rising energy prices) are outside of the central bank's jurisdiction. This thesis examines the case for a more prominent role for fiscal policy in achieving price stability, particularly the potential for the state's capacity to tax (and invest strategically in) critical industries associated with systemic price impacts such as energy and food staples. I will develop an empirical modelling framework suited for use by policy makers that will enable the identification of inflation sensitive industries and devise a metric of inflation risk that can be practically used to appraise fiscal policy proposals. The framework will be refined by evaluating it empirically on two distinct case studies. The first is a high-income economy with a sovereign currency and well-established macroeconomic policy regime (the UK). The second is a developing country (Peru) faced with different challenges given its weaker global currency and dependency on foreign imports. As well as working with datasets in these countries, I will conduct selected interviews with staff in state institutions concerned with price stability.