Pilot Aging and Aviation Safety

描述（由申请人提供）：本申请的广泛、长期目标是更好地了解衰老对飞行员安全性能的影响，并提高航空安全性。具体目标是：（1）确定商业航空飞行员参与坠机的相对风险的年龄相关变化;（2）检查航空公司和通勤者/空中出租车坠毁中飞行员错误的年龄相关变化;（3）在科学界和公众中传播研究结果，并提出相关政策建议。联邦航空条例规定所有主要航空公司的飞行员在60岁退休（第121部分）。这项政策（通常称为“60岁规则”）自1960年制定以来一直是持续争议和研究的主题。以往的研究主要是在受控的实验条件下进行的， 使用飞行模拟器。很少有观察性研究探讨了飞行员年龄与坠机风险之间的关系。在国家老龄化研究所的资助下，研究人员从1987年到1997年跟踪了3，306名通勤/空中出租车（第135部分）飞行员的出生队列，发现随着飞行员年龄从40多岁到50多岁，坠机风险保持相当稳定。纵向研究没有足够的数据来评估60岁以上的撞车风险。在拟议的项目中，研究人员将使用病例对照设计和监测数据来评估Part 121和Part 135飞行员参与坠机的相对风险的年龄相关变化。 病例是参与重大航空事故的飞行员（121例病例，n=550）或 1983年至2005年期间的通勤者/空中出租车事故（135例，n= 2，700），从国家运输安全委员会的航空事故数据系统中确定。对照组（1,100名Part 121飞行员和2,700名Part 135飞行员）将与重要混杂变量的病例相匹配，并从联邦航空管理局的事故数据系统中随机选择。将深入分析550起主要航空公司坠机事件和2,700起通勤空中出租车坠机事件的定量和文本数据，以描述飞行员错误和其他影响因素中与年龄相关的差异。本研究结果可提供有价值的经验数据，以了解飞行员老化与安全绩效的关系，并重新评估“60岁规则”。"

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The broad, long-term objectives of this application are to better understand the effects of aging on pilots' safety performance and to improve aviation safety. The specific aims are: (1) to determine age-related variations in the relative risk of crash involvement for commercial aviation pilots; (2) to examine age-related variations in pilot errors in airline and commuter/air taxi crashes; and (3) to disseminate the study results in scientific and public communities and make relevant policy recommendations. Federal Aviation Regulations mandate retirement at age 60 years for all major airline (Part 121) pilots. This policy (usually known as the "age-60 rule") has been the subject of continuing controversy and research since its establishment in 1960. Previous studies examining the effects of aging on piloting performance were conducted primarily under controlled experimental conditions using flight simulators. Few observational studies have examined the association of pilot age with the risk of crash involvement. With funding from the National Institute on Aging, the investigators followed a birth cohort of 3,306 commuter/air taxi (Part 135) pilots from 1987 to 1997 and found that crash risk remained fairly stable as the pilots aged from their late 40s to late 50s. There were insufficient data from the longitudinal study to assess the crash risk beyond age 60. In the proposed project, the investigators will use the case-control design and surveillance data to assess age-related variations in the relative risk of crash involvement for both Part 121 and Part 135 pilots. Cases are pilots who were involved in major airline crashes (Part 121 cases, n=550) or in commuter/air taxi crashes (Part 135 cases, n=2,700) during 1983 through 2005, identified from the National Transportation Safety Board's aviation crash data system. Controls (1,100 Part 121 pilots and 2,700 Part 135 pilots) will be matched with cases on important confounding variables and selected at random from the Federal Aviation Administration's incident data system. Quantitative and textual data for each of the 550 major airline crashes and 2,700 commuter air taxi crashes will be analyzed in depth to delineate age-related differences in pilot error and other contributing factors. Results of this project can provide valuable empirical data for understanding the relationship between pilot aging and safety performance and for reassessing the "age-60 rule."